\documentclass[10pt]{article}

\usepackage{fullpage}
\usepackage{setspace}
\usepackage{parskip}
\usepackage{titlesec}
\usepackage[section]{placeins}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{breakcites}
\usepackage{lineno}
\usepackage{hyphenat}





\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url}
\usepackage[colorlinks = true,
            linkcolor = blue,
            urlcolor  = blue,
            citecolor = blue,
            anchorcolor = blue]{hyperref}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\makeatletter
\patchcmd\@combinedblfloats{\box\@outputbox}{\unvbox\@outputbox}{}{%
  \errmessage{\noexpand\@combinedblfloats could not be patched}%
}%
\makeatother


\usepackage{natbib}




\renewenvironment{abstract}
  {{\bfseries\noindent{\abstractname}\par\nobreak}\footnotesize}
  {\bigskip}

\titlespacing{\section}{0pt}{*3}{*1}
\titlespacing{\subsection}{0pt}{*2}{*0.5}
\titlespacing{\subsubsection}{0pt}{*1.5}{0pt}


\usepackage{authblk}


\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage[space]{grffile}
\usepackage{latexsym}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\usepackage{longtable}
\usepackage{tabulary}
\usepackage{booktabs,array,multirow}
\usepackage{amsfonts,amsmath,amssymb}
\providecommand\citet{\cite}
\providecommand\citep{\cite}
\providecommand\citealt{\cite}
% You can conditionalize code for latexml or normal latex using this.
\newif\iflatexml\latexmlfalse
\providecommand{\tightlist}{\setlength{\itemsep}{0pt}\setlength{\parskip}{0pt}}%

\AtBeginDocument{\DeclareGraphicsExtensions{.pdf,.PDF,.eps,.EPS,.png,.PNG,.tif,.TIF,.jpg,.JPG,.jpeg,.JPEG}}

\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[ngerman,english]{babel}



\usepackage{float}








\begin{document}

\title{Is it possible to predict ENSO frequency changes for the coming century?}



\author[1]{Fiona Fix}%
\author[1]{Stefan Alexander Buehler}%
\author[1]{Frank Lunkeit}%
\affil[1]{Universität Hamburg}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 26, 2024}


\begingroup
\let\center\flushleft
\let\endcenter\endflushleft
\maketitle
\endgroup





\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important climate
variabilities on an inter-annual time-scale. We aim to find out whether
ENSO frequency will change in a changing climate. We analyse two
ensembles of General Circulation Models that participated in the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and an initial-conditions
ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model. We identify the uncertainty caused by
natural variability by comparing 120-year time-series of the
pre-industrial control and the 1-percent CO2 simulations for the CMIP6
ensembles. We found that the multi-member mean for all ensembles
predicts almost no change in ENSO frequency, but the uncertainties are
large, and that most of the inter-member variability can be attributed
to natural variability. This means that the impact of inter-model
differences might have been overstated in previous studies. This makes
it impossible to make reliable predictions of changes in ENSO frequency
based on 120-year simulations.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy




\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\end{document}

