Prediction of AHR by a multivariate score
Admission symptoms related to AHR and asthma have a wide variability,
and the diagnostic role of a single symptom is limited. The combination
of single items can improve the power of prediction(7, 24). We combined
the five items, extracted by multivariate analysis as independent
predictive factors, to construct a weighted multivariate score which
reached an AUC > 0.7 which is acceptable for a prognostic
model(39). To our knowledge, we generated a novel algorithm to predict
AHR in children without an obstructive pattern. In contrast to the
previously established predictive scores like the asthma predictive
index (API), we aimed for the diagnosis of current asthma and not for
the prediction of the development of asthma in later life(24). This
algorithm could allow a reliable identification of those patients with
an increased probability of AHR, and where an extended diagnostic using
MCC might be helpful, against those patients who are less likely to have
AHR and so prevent the mental stress and even the exhaustion of such
patients caused by the severe symptoms induced by the performance of the
MCC.