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\begin{document}

\title{A seasonal harmonic model for internal tide amplitude prediction}



\author[1]{Matthew David Rayson}%
\author[1]{Nicole L Jones}%
\author[1]{Gregory N. Ivey}%
\author[1]{Yankun Gong}%
\affil[1]{University of Western Australia}%


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  \date{June 16, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
We present an empirical model of the seasonal variability of the
internal tide using seasonal harmonics to modulate the amplitude of the
fundamental tidal constituents. Internal tide data, from both long-term,
in-situ moorings and a mesoscale- and internal tide-resolving ocean
model, are used to demonstrate the performance of the seasonal harmonic
model for the Indo-Australian Basin Region. The seasonal model describes
up to 15 \% more of the observed (baroclinic) sea surface height
variance than a fixed-amplitude harmonic mode at the mooring sites. The
ocean model results demonstrate that the study region, which includes
the Australian North West Shelf (NWS), Timor Sea and southern Indonesian
Islands, is dominated by standing wave interference patterns due to the
presence of multiple generation sites. The seasonal harmonic model
reveals that temporal shifts in the standing wave patterns coincide with
seasonal variations in density stratification. This shift is
particularly evident within distances of 2 - 3 internal wave lengths
from strong generation sites. The fraction of the variance of the
internal tide signal explained by seasonal modulations is largest in
standing wave node regions, contributing to differences in predictive
skill of the seasonal harmonic model at two moorings separated by only
38 km. Output of the harmonic model also demonstrated that the
seasonally-evolving M2 internal tide propagating southward from Lombok
Strait had a small amplitude in October when shear from the Indonesian
Throughflow was strongest.%
\end{abstract}%



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