Figure 3. Relationship between invasion success and phylogenetic distance as a function of mean and nearest phylogenetic distance to native species while accounting for phylogenetic, species and community effects. Lines show the values predicted by Bayesian mixed models, and the lower and upper bounds represents the uncertainty interval of the prediction. Occurrence models implement Bernoulli structure of errors and are based on 1358 estimations of presence/absence of 69 invader species across 277 communities. Abundance models implement Gaussian error structures and are based on 792 estimations of 62 invader species in 213 communities where the invaders were present. All models are univariate, including as a predictor mean phylogenetic (MPD), nearest phylogenetic distance (NPD) or each of these predictors weighted by abundance of native species (denoted with the subscript w ).