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\begin{document}

\title{How long do population level field experiments need to be? A
meta-analysis across the 40-year old LTER network}



\author[1]{Sarah Cusser}%
\author[1]{Jackson Helms IV}%
\author[2]{Christie Bahlai}%
\author[2]{Nick Haddad}%
\affil[1]{Michigan State University}%
\affil[2]{Michigan State University W K Kellogg Biological Station}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Long-term experiments are important in evaluating ecosystem properties
and processes that are slow to develop or require proper evaluation over
an appropriately variable climate. We repurpose the wealth of data
accessible through the forty-year-old Long-Term Ecological Research
(LTER) network with a novel moving window algorithm and meta-analysis
approach to ask if aspects of study taxa or environment alter the extent
of research necessary to detect consistent results, or the proportion of
spurious short-term trends. We found that experimental studies focused
on plants, and those conducted in dynamic abiotic environments, were
characterized by longer critical temporal thresholds and more spurious
trends. Further, nearly half of the studies we investigated required 10
years or longer to reach a temporal threshold, and 4 studies (of 100)
required longer than 20 years. We champion long-term data and argue that
long-term experiments are more necessary than ever to understand,
explain, and predict long-term trends.%
\end{abstract}%



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