Figure 5l.
Of note, the mechanistic model is still more reliable when the semi-mechanistic model is calibrated on more cycles. For example, the mechanistic model fitted on the first cycle results in better prediction of toxicities in cycles 4-6 than the SMM calibrated on all cycles prior to the predicted one (see Figure 5). The superiority of the mechanistic model is considerably larger when considering LDD statistics rather than DD statistics (see Figure 6). Only the parameter values derived from the regression of clinical factors resulted in comparable prediction performance of the two models. All scenarios using cycle data resulted in superior performance of the mechanistic model except for the highly unbalanced situation where the SMM was calibrated on five cycles while the mechanistic model was calibrated on only one cycle to predict the toxicity of the last cycle.