Fig. 1 Locations of UK breeding populations of P. muralis from which presence data informed models of climatic suitability and locations of confirmed sightings arising from a citizen science campaign 2017-2019
Fig. ‎2 Regions of climatic suitability for P. muralisin the UK as predicted by MaxEnt models considering seasonal averages of six climatic variables. Locations of major populations from which presence data informed model output: WE, Wembdon; NF, Newton Ferrers; KW, Kingswear; NA, Newton Abbot; PO, Portland; PQ, Purbeck quarries; DS, Durleston Head; BC, Bournemouth coast; BU, Bury; WW, West Worthing; SH, Shoreham; EA; Eastbourne; FO, Folkestone; FE, Felixstowe
Fig. 3 Response of P. muralis (probability of presence) to six climate variables as modelled in MaxEnt at the UK national scale: a) Maximum Spring temperature, b) Maximum Summer temperature, c) Maximum Autumn temperature, d) Maximum Winter temperature, e) Number of frost days, f) Annual duration (hours) of bright sun shine
Fig. 4 Response of P. muralis (probability of presence) to six environmental variables as modelled in MaxEnt at the UK local scale: a) Distance to buildings, b) Distance to rail, c) Distance to roads, d) NDVI, e) Habitat type, f) Spring solar insolation
Fig. 5 MaxEnt outputs showing local extent and configuration of suitable habitat for P. muralis populations in the UK. Order demonstrates the range of variance in patch fragmentation, patch isolation, and linear features of suitable habitat across local landscapes: a) West Worthing, b) Bournemouth (including Boscombe and Canford populations), c) Portland, d) Wembdon, e) Newton Ferrers. Outputs from RangeShifter models are overlain, indicating patterns of population dispersal projected from year of introduction to 2040 and number of lizards per occupied 225m2 cell
Fig. 6 Relationship between growth rate (r ) and a) aggregation of suitable habitat (NLSI), time since introduction b), and c), relationship between NLSI and annual dispersal distance in non-native population of P. muralis in the UK