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\begin{document}

\title{Effects of temperature on COVID-19 transmission in India}



\author[1]{Indranil Bhattacharjee}%
\author[1]{Anuradha Deb}%
\author[1]{Priyanka Sarangi}%
\author[2]{Biplab Mandal}%
\author[1]{Partha Chakravorty}%
\affil[1]{Raja Narendra Lal Khan Women's College}%
\affil[2]{Vidyasagar University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
This study analyzed the corelation between COVID-19 and temperature in
India. Secondary published data from different websites is used by us.
The climate indicators included in the study are maximum temperature,
minimum temperature. Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests were
chosen for data analysis. We find that maximum temperature has
significant relations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The
findings of this study will help health regulators to combat COVID-19 in
India and the rest of the world.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\textbf{1. Introduction}

Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19), is associated with the respiratory
disorder in humans which has been declared as a global epidemic and
pandemic in the first quarter of the year 2020 by the World Health
Organization (https://www.who.int/ novel-coronavirus-2019). People with
lowimmunity, old age, immunocompromised and medical problems specially
related to lungs, diabetes, cardiac related problems are more prone to
Covid 19 disease. The symptoms are cough, cold, breathing problem very
similar to flu. Exact transmission route of COVID-19 is yet to be
identified; it was transmitted mainly by respiratory droplets in humans
(Ge et al., 2013; Huang et al., 2020). Climate conditions are classified
as top predictors of coronavirus illnesses (Dalziel et al., 2018).
Climate factors includes wind speed, humidity, temperature (Yuan et al.,
2006; Bashir et al. 2020). Bull (1980) reported that pneumonia's
mortality rate is highly correlated with weather changes. Preventive
measures are to protect oneself by washing hands frequently, avoiding
touching the mouth, nose, and face, and by maintaining social distancing
(1 meter or 3 feet) with other people. It is reported that there are two
important stages of Covid 19; stage-II and stage-III. In stage-II, there
is person-to-person transmission and in stage-III, there is a community
transmission. The first case of Covid 19 was reported in India on 30
January 2020, originating from China. All most after two months this
disease spread in almost all parts of India. Majority of countries of
world have noticed a huge number of Covid 19 cases from December 2019
onwards. India is being looked upon by various nations now as a World
Leader and even WHO acknowledged that world is looking towards Indian
strategies to contain the outbreak of this epidemic (Sharma, 2020).
India accounts for almost one-fifth of the world's population and is
second leading country in terms of population in the world. India
contributes heavily to the world's GDP and is amongst the most prominent
developing country in the world with fairly strong economic growth
percentages (Myers, 2020). India's good closeness with majority of the
nations in the world and its helpful nature makes it a perfectally for
other countries. Therefore, the analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Indian
region is closely watched and monitored by the World and there is a need
of comprehensive analytical studies based on different strategies taken
by Indian administrators.

In this study, we aimed to ascertain the relation between maximum and
minimum temperatures with COVID 19 disease rates over India.

\textbf{2. Research methodology}

India is the seventh-largest country in the world, situated north of the
equator between 8\selectlanguage{ngerman}°4' north to 37°6' north latitude and 68°7' to 97°25'
east longitude (India year Book, 2007) with a total area of 3,287,263
square kilometres (1,269,219 sq mi) (India, 2012). In India there are 28
states and 8 Union Territories (States and Union Territories, 2020) .
India is the worlds second most populous country (1.2 billion, census,
2011) after Peoples Republic of China. India has 614000 inhabited
villages and 72.2 percent of the total population reside in this rural
areas (Census, 2011, Provisional Population Totals) . On the basis of
net migrants by last record Maharasthra had most immigartion with 2.3
million, followed by Delhi (1.7 million), Gujarat (0.68 million),
Haryana (0.67 million). Uttarpardesh and Bihar topped the list for
interstate emigration. The States of Uttar Pradesh, Maharasthra, Bihar,
West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh accounts for almost half (48.89 percent)
of the Total Indian Population (India Census, 2011). According to report
of National Institution for Transforming India, Government of India the
population density of State of West Bengal (1029 persons per sq km) is
highest followed by Bihar (1102 persons per sq km) and among Union
Territories the population density of Delhi (11297 persons per sq km) is
highest followed by Chandigarh (9252 persons per sq km). Secondary
published data from different websites is used by us. Dataset for the
climate indicators includes high temperature and low temperature. As the
data was not normally distributed therefore Kendall and Spearman rank
correlation statistical tests were utilized to examine the correlation
between variables using , SPSS 20 and XLSTAT software (Addinsoft, 2010).

2.1. Data availability statement

Dataset for COVID-19 is taken from January30, 2020--May 10, 2020, from
the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID19\_pandemic\_data/India\_medical\_cases\_summary\#cite\_note-2
and the data for climate indicators was taken from
https://weather.com/en IN/weather/monthly.

\textbf{3. Results and discussion}

Sharp rise in daily infective as well as active cases are noted together
with mortality rate. But in a dense country like India recovery rate is
also satisfactory. India is considered as warm country and temperature
plays important role in spread of COVID-19. During the Year 2020,
maximum temperature varies from 2 to 45°C and minimum temperature varies
from -5 to 31°C. With rise of temperature the droplets which falls on
the ground immediately dries due to extreme temperature. The areas where
the daily fluctuation rate of temperature is high suffers a lot. In
India from March onwards the COVID-19 is at its peak the temperature is
also not so much high but from April onwards there is slight decline in
number of cases (Figure 1). But spread of any pandemic diseases also
depends upon personal contact. Government of India implemented strict
rules of Lockdown as there is no other alternatives as there is no
vaccine and no other medicines to control them. Less number of cases in
dense country like India is also possible due to strong implementation
of lockdown.

The temperature dependency of COVID-19 may be similar to that of
SARS-Cov which loses its ability to survive in higher temperatures (Chan
et al., 2011), due to the breakdown of their lipid layer at higher
temperatures (Schoeman and Fielding, 2019) . With approaching summer,
there is redundancy in number of cases it may also be that the
temperature ranges we have seen so far for most of the cases upto 17 to
18 °C the virus is at its peak but as the temperature approaches tpwards
25°C the peak gradually declines.

Table 1 and Table 2 presents the empirical correlation coefficients with
scatter plot on Figure 2 . From both tables it is clear that tempmax has
more positve correlation with distribution of COVID-19. It clearly
suggests that maxtemperature has inhibitory effect on COVID-19 whereas
minmtemp supports the spread of the disease. Previous studies of Tan et
al. (2005) and Vandini et al. (2013) support our findings. Shi et al.
(2020) and Bashir et al. (2020) also researched climate indicators and
stated that temperature serves as a driver for the COVID-19.

Despite strong evidence of temperature association with COVID-19,
provides the following limitations. First, more variables are needed to
conduct a comprehensive study as COVID-19 is an infectious disease and
it is affected by many variables such as humidity, rainfall, wind speed,
social distancing, people's endurance and availability of health
facilities. Second, data about personal hygiene indicators such as hand
wash needs to be explored in further studies.

\textbf{4. Conclusion}

Climate plays important role in the fight against COVID-19 in country
like India. This study finds that maximum temperature significant
correlated with COVID-19 pandemic and will be useful in suppressing
COVID-19. Current study is of exploratory nature and in order to conduct
a comprehensive investigation, future research direction should examine
daily carbon emission data as current lockdown measures have greatly
reduced carbon emissions. Another research direction is to include
regional and cross-country investigations for most affected countries to
provide better insight for the fight against COVID-19.

\textbf{Conflict of Interest Statement}

We declare that we have no conflict of interest

\textbf{Funding information}

No funding from any source

\textbf{Credit Authorship contribution statement}

\textbf{IB-} Data curation, Writng Original Draft, Statistical
analysis,\textbf{AD-} Data Curation, \textbf{PS} - Data Curation,
\textbf{BM} - Reviewing, Editing, \textbf{PPC} - Designing, Monitoring,
Reviewing, Communication

\textbf{Acknowledgment}

Authors are grateful to PG Department of Zoology, Raja Narendra Lal Khan
Women's College (Autonomous), Paschim Medinipore, West Bengal, India for
the facilities provided.

\textbf{Ethical Statement}

No ethical approval was required because we used the secondary published
data from different websites.

\textbf{References:}

Addinsoft, SARL( 2010). XLSTAT software. Version 10.0. Paris, France.

Bashir, M. F., Ma, B., Bilal., Komal, B., Bashir, M.A., Tan, D., Bashir,
M., 2020. Correlation between climate indicators and COVID-19 pandemic
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Bull, G., 1980. The weather and deaths from pneumonia. Lancet 315,
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Census., 2011. Provisional Population Totals. The Hindu. Chennai India.
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Chan, K. H., Peiris, J.S.M, Lam, S.Y., Poon, L.L.M., Yuen, K.Y., Seto,
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