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COVID-19 in India: Prediction of the Evolution of Coronavirus using Epidemiological Modeling
  • Muthusami RathinasamyOrcid,
  • Saritha K,
  • A Bharathi
Muthusami Rathinasamy
Orcid
Dr Mahalingam College of Engineering and Technology
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Saritha K
PA College of Engineering and Technology
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A Bharathi
Bannari Amman Institute of Technology
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Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic is a big threat for all countries’ health systems. In India, the first case of coronavirus occurred in Kerala on 30 January 2020, followed by 2 more until 2 February 2020, but all three were cured, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) India situation report-2. Since this, no single case of coronavirus has been recorded across the country for a month. Nevertheless, from 2 March onwards, the number of cases rose on a regular basis. As of 21 June 2020, 410,461 confirmed cases and 13,254 total deaths, as stated in the World Health Organization (WHO) India situation report-21. This research presents significant findings about the early outbreak of COVID-19 in India. Due to the recent rapid rise in new cases of COVID-19, the pre-evolution of pandemic coronavirus is a pre-eminence in India. The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model was developed to estimate the reproductive number R0 at the early stage of the outbreak of COVID-19 and to evaluate this outbreak with available data on confirmed, deaths and recovered cases in India from 02 February 2020 to 26 June 2020.