Benefit 2: Measuring the health burden of covid-19

The second benefit of hospital data is the accurate and meaningful measurement of health care burden. A key consideration for covid-19 planning is health care capacity for patients with severe disease. Hospital data are clearly well-suited for this purpose.
The short-term forecast for hospital capacity is best estimated using current hospital use and growth measures based on recent hospital use. More sophisticated epidemic models can provide longer-range projections, but with more uncertainty in their estimates. Most long-term projection models are based on growth measures based on confirmed covid-19 cases, but they can also be generated using hospital-based growth and transmission measures. The inclusion of hospital-based transmission measures improves long-range models for two uses. The first use is the counterfactual assessment for reducing new hospitalizations using control measures such as physical distancing or contact tracing (Fig. \ref{253309}). The second use is extended forecasts for ICU capacity, personal protective equipment (PPE) and other critical resources that take time to plan or procure.\cite{RN4}