Benefit 2: Measuring the health burden of covid-19
The second benefit of hospital data is the accurate and meaningful
measurement of health care burden. A key consideration for covid-19
planning is health care capacity for patients with severe disease.
Hospital data are clearly well-suited for this purpose.
The short-term forecast for hospital capacity is best estimated using
current hospital use and growth measures based on recent hospital use.
More sophisticated epidemic models can provide longer-range projections,
but with more uncertainty in their estimates. Most long-term projection
models are based on growth measures based on confirmed covid-19 cases,
but they can also be generated using hospital-based growth and
transmission measures. The inclusion of hospital-based transmission
measures improves long-range models for two uses. The first use is the
counterfactual assessment for reducing new hospitalizations using
control measures such as physical distancing or contact
tracing (Fig. \ref{253309}). The second use is extended forecasts for
ICU capacity, personal protective equipment (PPE) and other critical
resources that take time to plan or procure.\cite{RN4}