Figure captions.
Figure 1. Population model results across the management space:
varying the timing of targeted gene flow (years) and the proportion of
pre-adapted individuals introduced. (a) The probability of extinction
(x ; blue = high chance of extinction) for varying implementations
of targeted gene flow; (b) The Gini-Simpson index of diversity
(D ; yellow = high diversity of alleles present) averaged across
simulations; and (c) Expected return of management action (i.e. the
diversity measure of the surviving population) calculated by E(Y )
= D ยท (1 - x ). The bins represent an expected return of
90% (inner) and 50% (outer).
Figure 2. Global sensitivity analysis exploring
three-dimensional parameter space: carrying capacity
(N* : represented by point colours), maximum
demographic pressure (m : represented in panels) and heritability
(h2 : represented as point shapes). Showing (a)
Maximum expected return (E(Y )) from a scenario, with outbreeding
depression held constant at 10%; (b) displays the location in
management space (the timing of targeted gene flow and the proportion of
pre-adapted individuals introduced) that produced the maximum expected
return(E(Y ) in (a).
Figure 3 . Population model results across our management space
considering 0% (a), 10% (b) and 50% (c) reduction in fitness for F1
hybrids on the expected return of a management action (i.e. the
diversity measure of the surviving population). Bins represent expected
return of 90% (inner) and 50% (outer).
Figure 4. Global sensitivity analysis exploring
three-dimensional parameter space: outbreeding depression: represented
by point colours), maximum demographic pressure (m : represented
in panels) and heritability (h2 : represented as
point shapes). Showing (a) Maximum expected return (E(Y )) from a
scenario, with carrying capacity held constant at 1000 individuals. Part
(b) displays the location in management space (the timing of targeted
gene flow and the proportion of pre-adapted individuals introduced) that
produced the maximum expected return(E(Y )) in (a).
Figure 5. Global sensitivity analysis exploring
three-dimensional parameter space: reproductive rate: represented by
point colours), maximum demographic pressure (m : represented in
panels) and heritability (h2 : represented as
point shapes). Showing (a) Maximum expected return (E(Y )) from a
scenario, with carrying capacity held constant at 1000 individuals. Part
(b) displays the location in management space (the timing of targeted
gene flow and the proportion of pre-adapted individuals introduced) that
produced the maximum expected return(E(Y )) in (a).
Figure 6. Population model results across the management space
varying the timing of targeted gene flow (years) and the proportion of
pre-adapted individuals introduced. Expected return of a given
management action set for a low rate environmental change (m = 0.15)
(a); a medium level of change (m = 0.3) (b); and a severe level of
environmental change (m = 1) (c). The bins represent an expected return
of 90% (inner) and 50% (outer).