METHODOLOGY:
This is a retrospective review study, in which official daily data of
COVID 19 that was released by national agency NIH-Pakistan and
international agency WHO, was collected. The data was collected on daily
basis regarding COVID-19 suspected cases, number of lab tested cases
with their outcome, and number of travelers screened form February
26’2020 to April 3’2020. Graph was used to show national statistics of
compound growth rate of COVID-19 lab tested positive cases in Pakistan.
Regional statistics were collected regarding cumulative data on
suspected cases, tests performed, and tests with positive outcome.
Percentages of regional cumulative tests positive, cumulative cases
recovered and cumulative cases expired were also generated.
The forecasting of trajectory of COVID-19 in Pakistan was done by data
analysis using SPSS version-23. Line chart was made, and forecasting was
made using time series modeler / expert modeler. For each model,
forecasts start after the last non-missing in the range of the requested
estimation period, and end at the last period for which non-missing
values of all the predictors are available or at the end date of the
requested forecast period, whichever is earlier. The data was predicted
for 4th April till 30th April.