Conclusion
Unlocking current social restrictions as soon as possible is vital to
minimise demand on the economy and the impact of prolonged social
containment. However, this must be balanced against containing the
current pandemic and minimising future infection waves.
While mindful of the limitations of trend analysis, we believe that
several key principles can be derived from the analysis which may aid
policy makers in a smoother transition to reducing social containment
and sustainably managing the COVID-19 disease. These principles include
focusing on achieving low enough R values to keep mortality comparable
with influenza, tailoring social behavioural policies to the ongoing
tally of latest case numbers and calculating the current R-value within
each locality.
We hope this analysis will have relevance and utility for policymakers
at national and regional levels in managing the population ‘Unlock’
across the UK and elsewhere.