References
Ackerman, D. E., Griffin, D., Hobbie, S. E., Popham, K., Jones, E.,et al . (2018). Uniform shrub growth response to June temperature across the North Slope of Alaska. Env. Res. Lett. , 13, 044013.
Arft, A. M., Walker, M. D., Gurevitch, J. E. A., Alatalo, J. M., Bret-Harte, M. S., et al . (1999). Responses of tundra plants to experimental warming: meta‐analysis of the international tundra experiment. Ecol. Monogr. , 69, 491–511.
Bale, J. S., Masters, G. J., Hodkinson, I. D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T. M., et al . (2002). Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob. Ch. Biol. , 8, 1–16.
Barrio, I. C., Bueno, C. G., & Hik, D. S. (2016). Warming the tundra: reciprocal responses of invertebrate herbivores and plants.Oikos , 125, 20–28.
Barrio, I. C., Lindén, E., Te Beest, M., Olofsson, J., Rocha, A.,et al . (2017). Background invertebrate herbivory on dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa-nana complex) increases with temperature and precipitation across the tundra biome. Polar Biol. , 40, 2265–2278.
Birkemoe, T., Bergmann, S., Hasle, T. E., & Klanderud, K. (2016). Experimental warming increases herbivory by leaf‐chewing insects in an alpine plant community. Ecol. Evol. , 6, 6955–6962.
Christie, K. S., Ruess, R. W., Lindberg, M. S., & Mulder, C. P. (2014). Herbivores influence the growth, reproduction, and morphology of a widespread arctic willow. PloS One , 9, e101716.
Christie, K. S., Bryant, J. P., Gough, L., Ravolainen, V. T., Ruess, R. W., et al . (2015). The role of vertebrate herbivores in regulating shrub expansion in the Arctic: a synthesis.BioScience , biv137.
Clark, A. T., Ye, H., Isbell, F., Deyle, E. R., Cowles, J., et al . (2015). Spatial convergent cross mapping to detect causal relationships from short time series. Ecology , 96, 1174–1181.
Crawley, M. J. (1983). Herbivory. The dynamics of animal-plant interactions. Blackwell Scientific Publications.
Crawley, M. J. (1989). Insect herbivores and plant population dynamics.Annu. Rev. Entomol. , 34, 531–562.
Day, T.A., DeLucia, E.H. & Smith, W.K. (1989). Influence of cold soil and snow cover on photosynthesis and leaf conductance in two Rocky Mountain conifers. Oecologia , 80, 546–552.
Deyle, E. R., May, R. M., Munch, S. B., & Sugihara, G. (2016). Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time. Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. , 283, 20152258.
Forbes, B. C., Macis-Fauria, M. and Zetterberg, P. (2010). Russian Arctic warming and ‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Glob. Ch. Biol. , 16, 1542–1554.
Hakkarainen, H., Virtanen, R., Honkanen, J. O., & Roininen, H. (2007). Willow bud and shoot foraging by ptarmigan in relation to snow level in NW Finnish Lapland. Polar Biol. , 30, 619–624.
Grace, J., Berninger, F. & Nagy, L. (2002). Impacts of climate change on the tree line. Annals of Botany , 90, 537–544.
Havranek, W. (1972). Über die Bedeutung der Bodentemperatur für die Photosynthese und Transpiration junger Forstpflanzen und für die Stoffproduktion and der Waldgrenze. Angerwandte Botanik , 46, 101–116.
Havström, M., Callaghan, T. V., & Jonasson, S. (1993). Differential growth responses of Cassiope tetragona, an arctic dwarf-shrub, to environmental perturbations among three contrasting high-and subarctic sites. Oikos , 66, 389–402.
den Herder, M., Virtanen, R., & Roininen, H. (2004). Effects of reindeer browsing on tundra willow and its associated insect herbivores.J. Appl. Ecol. , 41, 870–879.
den Herder, M., Virtanen, R., & Roininen, H. (2008). Reindeer herbivory reduces willow growth and grouse forage in a forest-tundra ecotone.Basic Appl. Ecol. , 9, 324–331.
Hoch, G. & Körner, C. (2003). The carbon charging of pines at the climatic treeline: a global comparison. Oecologia , 135, 10–21.
Hoogesteger, J., & Karlsson, P. S. (1992). Effects of defoliation on radial stem growth and photosynthesis in the mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa). Funct. Ecol. , 6, 317–323.
Hsieh, C. H., Anderson, C., & Sugihara, G. (2008). Extending nonlinear analysis to short ecological time series. Am. Nat. , 171, 71-80.
Jepsen, J. U., Hagen, S. B., Ims, R. A., & Yoccoz, N. G. (2008). Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. J. Anim. Ecol. , 77, 257–264.
Karakoç, C., Clark, A. T. & Chatzinotas, A. (2020). Diversity and coexistence are influenced by time-dependent species interactions in a predator-prey system. Ecol. Lett. , in press
Kitti, H., Forbes, B. C., & Oksanen, J. (2009). Long-and short-term effects of reindeer grazing on tundra wetland vegetation. Polar Biol. , 32, 253–261.
Lehmann, P., Ammunét, T., Barton, M., Battisti, A., Eigenbrode, S. D.,et al . (2020). Complex responses of global insect pests to climate warming. Front. Ecol. Env. , in press
Lund, M., Raundrup, K., Westergaard-Nielsen, A., López-Blanco, E., Nymand, J., et al . (2017). Larval outbreaks in West Greenland: instant and subsequent effects on tundra ecosystem productivity and CO2 exchange. Ambio , 46, 26–38.
Marshall, K. N., Cooper, D. J., & Hobbs, N. T. (2014). Interactions among herbivory, climate, topography and plant age shape riparian willow dynamics in northern Yellowstone National Park, USA. J. Ecol. , 102, 667–677.
Martin, A. C., Jeffers, E. S., Petrokofsky, G., Myers-Smith, I., & Macias-Fauria, M. (2017). Shrub growth and expansion in the Arctic tundra: an assessment of controlling factors using an evidence-based approach. Env. Res. Lett. , 12, 085007.
Massad, T. J. (2013). Ontogenetic differences of herbivory on woody and herbaceous plants: a meta-analysis demonstrating unique effects of herbivory on the young and the old, the slow and the fast.Oecologia , 172, 1–10.
Mohammed, A.-R. & Tarpley, L. (2009). Impact of High Nighttime Temperature on Respiration, Membrane Stability, Antioxidant Capacity, and Yield of Rice Plants. Crop Sci. , 49, 313–322.
Myers-Smith, I. H., Elmendorf, S. C., Beck, P. S., Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., et al . (2015). Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome. Nature Clim. Ch. , 5, 887–891.
Newton, E. J., Pond, B. A., Brown, G. S., Abraham, K. F., & Schaefer, J. A. (2014). Remote sensing reveals long-term effects of caribou on tundra vegetation. Polar Biol. , 37, 715–725.
O’Connor, M. I. (2009). Warming strengthens an herbivore–plant interaction. Ecology , 90, 388–398.
Olofsson, J., Oksanen, L., Callaghan, T., Hulme, P. E., Oksanen, T.,et al . (2009). Herbivores inhibit climate‐driven shrub expansion on the tundra. Glob. Ch. Biol. , 15, 2681–2693.
Pajunen, A. M. (2009). Environmental and biotic determinants of growth and height of arctic willow shrubs along a latitudinal gradient.Arct. Ant. Alp. Res. , 41, 478–485.
Pajunen, A., Virtanen, R., & Roininen, H. (2008). The effects of reindeer grazing on the composition and species richness of vegetation in forest–tundra ecotone. Polar Biol. , 31, 1233–1244.
Pajunen, A., Virtanen, R., & Roininen, H. (2012). Browsing‐mediated shrub canopy changes drive composition and species richness in forest‐tundra ecosystems. Oikos , 121, 1544–1552.
Post, E., & Pedersen, C. (2008). Opposing plant community responses to warming with and without herbivores. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. , 105, 12353–12358.
Ravolainen, V. T., Bråthen, K. A., Ims, R. A., Yoccoz, N. G., Henden, J. A., et al. (2011). Rapid, landscape scale responses in riparian tundra vegetation to exclusion of small and large mammalian herbivores.Basic Appl. Ecol. , 12, 643–653.
Ravolainen, V. T., Bråthen, K. A., Yoccoz, N. G., Nguyen, J. K., & Ims, R. A. (2014). Complementary impacts of small rodents and semi‐domesticated ungulates limit tall shrub expansion in the tundra.J. Appl. Ecol. , 51, 234–241.
Ren, P., Néron, V., Rossi, S., Liang, E., Bouchard, M., et al . (2020). Warming counteracts defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony. Glob. Ch. Biol., in press
Roy, B. A., Güsewell, S., & Harte, J. (2004). Response of plant pathogens and herbivores to a warming experiment. Ecology , 85, 2570–2581.
Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M.,et al . (2017). Forest disturbances under climate change.Nature Clim. Ch. , 7, 395–402.
Sugihara, G. (1994). Nonlinear Forecasting for the Classification of Natural Time-Series. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A: Mathem. Phys. Engin. Sci. , 348, 477–95.
Sugihara, G., May, R., Ye, H., Hsieh, C. H., Deyle, E., et al . (2012). Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science , 338, 496–500.
Svensson, B. M., Carlsson, B. Å., & Melillo, J. M. (2018). Changes in species abundance after seven years of elevated atmospheric CO2 and warming in a subarctic birch forest understorey, as modified by rodent and moth outbreaks. PeerJ , 6, e4843.
Takahashi, M., & Huntly, N. (2010). Herbivorous insects reduce growth and reproduction of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata).Arthropod-Plant Interactions , 4, 257–266.
Tape, K. D., Lord, R., Marshall, H. P., & Ruess, R. W. (2010). Snow-mediated ptarmigan browsing and shrub expansion in arctic Alaska.Ecoscience , 17, 186–193.
Tenow, O., Bylund, H., Karlsson, P. S., & Hoogesteger, J. (2004). Rejuvenation of a mountain birch forest by an Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) outbreak. Acta Oecol. , 25, 43–52.
Trotter, R. T., Cobb, N. S., & Whitham, T. G. (2002). Herbivory, plant resistance, and climate in the tree ring record: Interactions distort climatic reconstructions. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. , 99, 10197–10202.
Virtanen, R., Oksanen, L., Oksanen, T., Cohen, J., Forbes, B. C.,et al . (2016). Where do the treeless tundra areas of northern highlands fit in the global biome system: toward an ecologically natural subdivision of the tundra biome. Ecol. Evol. , 6, 143–158.
Vuorinen, K. E., Rao, S. J., Hester, A. J., & Speed, J. D. (2020). Herbivory and climate as drivers of woody plant growth: Do deer decrease the impacts of warming?. Ecol. Appl. , in press
Weijers, S., Buchwal, A., Blok, D., Löffler, J., & Elberling, B. (2017). High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world’s northernmost polar desert. Glob. Ch. Biol. , 23, 5006–5020.
Weijers, S., Beckers, N., & Löffler, J. (2018). Recent spring warming limits near‐treeline deciduous and evergreen alpine dwarf shrub growth.Ecosphere , 9, e02328.
Wijk, S. (1986). Influence of climate and age on annual shoot increment in Salix herbacea. J. Ecol. , 74, 685–692.
Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., Van Bogaert, R., Kyncl, T., Babst, F.,et al . (2012). Continuously missing outer rings in woody plants at their distributional margins. Dendrochronol. , 30, 213–222.
Wilmking, M., Buras, A., Lehejček, J., Lange, J., Shetti, R., et al . (2018). Influence of larval outbreaks on the climate reconstruction potential of an Arctic shrub. Dendrochronol. , 49, 36–43.
Ye, H., Clark, A.T., Deyle, E., Munch, S., Keyes, O., et al . (2018). REDM: Applications of empirical dynamic modeling from time series. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.1294063.