Introduction : Recently World Health Organization declared novel
coronavirus (2019-nCov) a global health emergency for its rapid global
implication in health care system and economic impact. Italy is one of
the first European country with registered cluster case of acute
pneumonia and on February 23 2020 the Italian government declared the
first measures of quarantine to reduce the virus spread and
outbreaks.1 It has been estimated an high diffusion,
2% fatal rate of 2019-nCoV and 20% of subjects affected rate of
admission in Intensive Care Unit (ICU).2 National
Health Care system could be collapse for the high potential rate of
incoming pneumonia. The aim of the study is analyzing, the first
official Italian data searching a predicting model.3
Methods : From 23 February 2020 to 15 March 2020, there were
collected daily data of cumulative reports of Protezione Civile
Italiana (Italian Civil Protection) such as number of positive
subjects, hospital admitted, ICU admitted, deaths and full recovery. The
statistical analysis was performed using statistical programs Different
model were tested and forecast values were calculated in the end were
calculated predicted values with the best model: p value was considered
significant if <0.05.
Results: Number of positive subjects (PS) follows a non linear
regression with day p <0.001, such as the number of PS and
hospital admitted p <0.001, PS and ICU admitted p <
0.001, PS and death people p <0.001 and PS and recover
subjects. At the same, also number of hospital admitted follows a non
linear regression with p <0.001, (Table ). The 46.7%
of PS are admitted in hospital facilities and the 10.0 % of PS stayed
in ICU, the ratio of hospitalized patients and ICU admitted ICU is the
22.3%. Death rate is the 5% and recover rate is actually 8%. The
relationship between Hospital admitted and ICU admitted subjects follows
a linear regression, p <0.001
Discussion: From the first data 2019-n CoV seems to have
different non linear growths, besides a rapid increasing number of PS in
these days, that is very susceptible by public health rules what it is
very interesting the constant ratio of Hospitalized and ICU admitted: if
in the next weeks we will reach positive the 1% of Italian population
it will be necessary over 60.000 beds in ICU, this could be a breakpoint
system. This result could be confirmed and underlined by the increasing
trend of ICU admission and the relationship between hospitalized
patients and ICU admitted subjects. Of course, national health care
system needs more time to adapt itself and to deal with this challenge.
Actually, 2019 n-CoV transmission probably presented the following
relationship: \(y=ax^{3}bx^{2}+cx+d\), where \(y\) are infected,\(x\) the intrinsic potential reproducing number, we can only act on the
constants\(\ \alpha,\ b,c\) and \(d\) the intercept with environmental
strategies and adequate medical treatments, downgrading the infected and
death, uprising recover. (Figure 1a-1b). Observing the first data this
equation is applicable also to hospital and ICU admission, rate of death
and recover. As it happened in China, quarantine and environmental has a
positive, but later effect and can reduce the rate of infected, subjects
in ICU and death and can change the model.4Furthermore this is a preliminary interpretation, but not only at the
end of this phenomena it will be possible to analyze, customize
and fit the best model.5 However, in this contest, it
is important do not forget emergency and necessary medical and surgical
procedures that should be guarantee: a possible solution is try to
re-organize mansion and missions of the hospital as happened in
different and less dramatic event.6 This model surely
can predict the worst scenario, but knowing it, we are ready to answer
doing the best. We need to avoid the breakpoint system, change the
2019-nCov Curve outbreaks, now!