Introduction : Recently World Health Organization declared novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) a global health emergency for its rapid global implication in health care system and economic impact. Italy is one of the first European country with registered cluster case of acute pneumonia and on February 23 2020 the Italian government declared the first measures of quarantine to reduce the virus spread and outbreaks.1 It has been estimated an high diffusion, 2% fatal rate of 2019-nCoV and 20% of subjects affected rate of admission in Intensive Care Unit (ICU).2 National Health Care system could be collapse for the high potential rate of incoming pneumonia. The aim of the study is analyzing, the first official Italian data searching a predicting model.3
Methods : From 23 February 2020 to 15 March 2020, there were collected daily data of cumulative reports of Protezione Civile Italiana (Italian Civil Protection) such as number of positive subjects, hospital admitted, ICU admitted, deaths and full recovery. The statistical analysis was performed using statistical programs Different model were tested and forecast values were calculated in the end were calculated predicted values with the best model: p value was considered significant if <0.05.
Results: Number of positive subjects (PS) follows a non linear regression with day p <0.001, such as the number of PS and hospital admitted p <0.001, PS and ICU admitted p < 0.001, PS and death people p <0.001 and PS and recover subjects. At the same, also number of hospital admitted follows a non linear regression with p <0.001, (Table ). The 46.7% of PS are admitted in hospital facilities and the 10.0 % of PS stayed in ICU, the ratio of hospitalized patients and ICU admitted ICU is the 22.3%. Death rate is the 5% and recover rate is actually 8%. The relationship between Hospital admitted and ICU admitted subjects follows a linear regression, p <0.001
Discussion: From the first data 2019-n CoV seems to have different non linear growths, besides a rapid increasing number of PS in these days, that is very susceptible by public health rules what it is very interesting the constant ratio of Hospitalized and ICU admitted: if in the next weeks we will reach positive the 1% of Italian population it will be necessary over 60.000 beds in ICU, this could be a breakpoint system. This result could be confirmed and underlined by the increasing trend of ICU admission and the relationship between hospitalized patients and ICU admitted subjects. Of course, national health care system needs more time to adapt itself and to deal with this challenge. Actually, 2019 n-CoV transmission probably presented the following relationship: \(y=ax^{3}bx^{2}+cx+d\), where \(y\) are infected,\(x\) the intrinsic potential reproducing number, we can only act on the constants\(\ \alpha,\ b,c\) and \(d\) the intercept with environmental strategies and adequate medical treatments, downgrading the infected and death, uprising recover. (Figure 1a-1b). Observing the first data this equation is applicable also to hospital and ICU admission, rate of death and recover. As it happened in China, quarantine and environmental has a positive, but later effect and can reduce the rate of infected, subjects in ICU and death and can change the model.4Furthermore this is a preliminary interpretation, but not only at the end of this phenomena it will be possible to analyze, customize and fit the best model.5 However, in this contest, it is important do not forget emergency and necessary medical and surgical procedures that should be guarantee: a possible solution is try to re-organize mansion and missions of the hospital as happened in different and less dramatic event.6 This model surely can predict the worst scenario, but knowing it, we are ready to answer doing the best. We need to avoid the breakpoint system, change the 2019-nCov Curve outbreaks, now!