Conclusions
The IHME's best-estimate prediction of cumulative COVID-19 deaths by July 30, 2020 for each US state and the District of Columbia have already been surpassed in seven states and the District of Columbia, and in one of those states (as well as in the District of Columbia) the predicted upper bound has been surpassed as well. Nationally, however, as well as in most states (43 out of 50), the predicted death toll has not yet been reached. Thus, this study provides clear evidence that the IHME's predicted COVID-19 deaths were too low in Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia. In the other 43 states, the number of deaths has not reached the predicted value yet, meaning that it is at least theoretically still possible for the IHME predictions to be accurate in those states as well as nationally.