\(\left(J=Se+Sp-1\right)\)\cite{Fluss_2005} and, hence, the overall minimization of the false results (i.e. both false positive and false negative early warnings). Another approach could be to select \(m\) and \(c\) such that the highest \(Se\left(or\ Sp\right)\) is achieved with \(Sp\left(or\ Se\right)=1\) or not dropping below a critical value (e.g. 95%). Advanced Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis can also be performed \cite{Zweig_1993} and selection of critical values can be based on indices that quantify the relative cost of false positive (i.e., falsely predicting an upcoming epidemic wave) to false negative (i.e., failing to predict an upcoming epidemic wave) warnings, like the misclassification cost term \(\left(MCT\right)\).
Generation of an early warning