Our work introduces the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), which is inspired by the use of volatility indices in the stock market \cite{Fernandes_2014,Brenner_1989}. EVI is based on the moving standard deviation of the newly reported cases during an epidemic. First we present the rationale of EVI and then provide an example application with COVID-19 data from Italy and New York. Daily updated predictions - with a 48 hour lag for confirmation purposes - are available online for all world countries and each of the United States. Results revealed a firm and consistent ability of EVI to predict the COVID-19 epidemic waves, in all instances.
Materials and Methods