Many of the species in decline around the world are subject to different environmental stressors across their range, so replicated large-scale monitoring programmes, are necessary to disentangle the relative impacts of these threats. At the same time as funding for long-term monitoring is being cut, studies are increasingly being criticised for lacking statistical power. For those taxa or environments where a single vantage point can observe individuals or ecological processes, time-lapse cameras can provide a cost-effective way of collecting time series data replicated at large spatial scales that would otherwise be impossible. However, networks of time-lapse cameras needed to cover the range of species or processes create a problem in that the scale of data collection easily exceeds our ability to process the raw imagery manually. Citizen science and machine learning provide solutions to scaling up data extraction (such as locating all animals in an image). Crucially, citizen science, machine learning-derived classifiers, and the intersection between them, are key to understanding how to establish monitoring systems that are sensitive to – and sufficiently powerful to detect –changes in the study system. Citizen science works relatively ‘out of the box’, and we regard it as a first step for many systems until machine learning algorithms are sufficiently trained to automate the process. Using Penguin Watch (www.penguinwatch.org) data as a case study, we discuss a complete workflow from images to parameter estimation and interpretation: the use of citizen science and computer vision for image processing, and parameter estimation and individual recognition for investigating biological questions. We discuss which techniques are easily generalizable to a range of questions, and where more work is needed to supplement ‘out of the box’ tools. We conclude with a horizon scan of the advances in camera technology, such as on-board computer vision and decision making.

Background: Nonimmediate (delayed) allergic reactions to penicillins are common and some of them can be life-threatening. The genetic factors influencing these reactions are unknown/poorly known/poorly understood. We assessed the genetic predictors of a delayed penicillin allergy that cover the HLA loci. Methods: Using next-generation sequencing (NGS), we genotyped the MHC region in 24 patients with delayed hypersensitivity compared with 20 patients with documented immediate hypersensitivity to penicillins recruited in Italy. Subsequently, we analyzed in silico Illumina Immunochip genotyping data that covered the HLA loci in 98 Spanish patients with delayed hypersensitivity and 315 with immediate hypersensitivity compared to 1,308 controls. Results: The two alleles DRB3*02:02:01:02 and DRB3*02:02:01:01 were reported in twenty cases with delayed reactions (83%) and ten cases with immediate reactions (50%), but not in the Allele Frequency Net Database. Bearing at least one of the two alleles increased the risk of delayed reactions compared to immediate reactions, with an OR of 8.88 (95% CI, 3.37–23.32; P <0.0001). The haplotype (ACAA) from rs9268835, rs6923504, rs6903608, and rs9268838 genetic variants of the HLA-DRB3 genomic region was significantly associated with an increased risk of delayed hypersensitivity to penicillins (OR, 1.7; 95% CI: 1.06–1.92; P=0.001), but not immediate hypersensitivity. Conclusion: We showed that the HLA-DRB3 locus is strongly associated with an increased risk of delayed penicillin hypersensitivity, at least in Southwestern Europe. The determination of HLA-DRB3*02:02 alleles in the risk management of severe delayed hypersensitivity to penicillins should be evaluated further in larger population samples of different origins.

Outlier detection in data mining is an important arena where detection models are developed to discover the objects that do not confirm the expected behavior. The generation of huge data in real time applications makes the outlier detection process into more crucial and challenging. Traditional detection techniques based on mean and covariance are not suitable to handle large amount of data and the results are affected by outliers. So it is essential to develop an efficient outlier detection model to detect outliers in the large dataset. The objective of this research work is to develop an efficient outlier detection model for multivariate data employing the enhanced Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM). It is an extension of conventional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the proposed model allows arbitrary time distribution in its states to detect outliers. Experimental results demonstrate the better performance of proposed model in terms of detection accuracy, detection rate. Compared to conventional Hidden Markov Model based outlier detection the detection accuracy of proposed model is obtained as 98.62% which is significantly better for large multivariate datasets.

This paper presents the results of the safety assessment of the β coefficient that correlates the residual flexural tensile strength parameters fRi (i = 1, 2, 3, and 4) in steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC), collected through experimental notched beam flexural tests in three points, according to the fib Model Code 2010 (fib, 2013), with the bond strength (fu,f) of the hook-end type steel fiber in the concrete mix. The SFRC beams were chosen, which presents the load-opening ratio curve of the crack, F-CMOD (Crack Mouth Opening Displacement) in softening behavior, the compressive strength of the concrete, 25 MPa < fc < 80 MPa, the fiber volume content, 0.25 % < Vf < 0.80 % and the fiber aspect ratio, 60 < lf/df < 95. The results in 46 prisms notched of the database formed by 13 studies, showed a considerable influence of the fRi x fu,f ratio with lower variability of around 10%. Thus, through statistical resources, empirical proposals were established to estimate the residual flexural tensile strengths, as a viable and economical alternative to the design project.

Objective: Lithium is a cornerstone treatment option in bipolar disorder. Currently, only clinical findings are used to predict the response of lithium treatment but reliable biological marker has not yet been identified. With this background, it was aimed to compare tryptophan metabolite levels between bipolar patients and healthy control group and to investigate the relationship between lithium treatment response and tryptophan metabolite levels of euthymic bipolar patients(BP). Materials and Methods: 52 euthymic BP patients on lithium were included in the study. Sociodemographic and clinical information were recorded and lithium treatment response status was determined according to the Alda scale. Age and gender matched Healthy controls(HC) were selected from the people who admitted to Selcuk University Medical Faculty Hospital Health Board. Plasma tryptophan metabolite levels were compared between BP and HC. The correlation and association between the lithium response levels of the patients and the plasma tryptophan metabolites were evaluated. Results: Plasma tryptophan(TRP), kynurenine(KYN), kynurenine/tryptophan ratio(KYN/TRP), 3-hydroxy-kynurenine(3-HK) and kynurenic acid(KYNA) levels were significantly lower in BP than HC. In the regression analysis, only plasma KYNA concentrations were found to be significantly lower in the responding well to lithium treatment and TRP levels. None of the tryptophan metabolites were found to be associated well response to lithium treatment after the logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that KYNA levels might be used as a screening test for discriminating bipolar patients from the HC. TRP levels might be used to predict lithium treatment response in spite of low specifity and low sensitivity levels. Key words: Tryptophan metabolites, lithium treatment response, bipolar disorder

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated again the global threat posed by emerging zoonotic coronaviruses. During the past two decades alone, humans have experienced the emergence of several coronaviruses, such as SARS-CoV in 2003, MERS-CoV in 2012, and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. To date, MERS-CoV has been detected in 27 countries, with a case fatality ratio of approximately 34.5 %. Similar to other coronaviruses, MERS-CoV presumably originated from bats; however, the main reservoir and primary source of human infections are dromedary camels. Other species within the Camelidae family, such as Bactrian camels, alpacas, and llamas, seem to be susceptible to the infection as well, although to a lesser extent. In contrast, susceptibility studies on sheep, goats, cattle, pigs, chickens, and horses obtained divergent results. In the present study, we tested nasal swabs and/or sera from 55 sheep, 45 goats, and 52 cattle, collected at the largest livestock market in the United Arab Emirates, where dromedaries are also traded, for the presence of MERS-CoV nucleic acid by RT-qPCR, and for specific antibodies by immunofluorescence assay (IFA). All sera were negative for MERS-CoV-reactive antibodies, but the nasal swab of one sheep (1.8 %) was positive for MERS-CoV nucleic acid. Next generation sequencing (NGS) of the complete N gene of the sheep-derived MERS-CoV revealed >99 % nucleotide identity to MERS-CoV sequences of five dromedaries in nearby pens and to three reference sequences. The NGS sequence of the sheep-derived MERS-CoV was confirmed by conventional RT-PCR of a part of the N gene and subsequent Sanger sequencing. All MERS-CoV sequences clustered within clade B, lineage 5. In conclusion, our study shows that non-camelid livestock, such as sheep, goats, and cattle do not play a major role in MERS-CoV epidemiology. The one sheep that tested positive most likely reflects an accidental viral spillover event from infected dromedaries in nearby pens.

Aims: In this study, we aimed to investigate the anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects of intravenous ibuprofen by using the C-reactive protein level and thiol/disulfide homeostasis as the oxidative stress marker. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted on 70 patients aged between 30and65 who were scheduled for elective laparoscopic hysterectomy. The patients were divided into two groups to receive either preemptive 800mg of intravenous ibuprofen plus 1000 mg of intravenous paracetamol (Group IP) or only 1000 mg of intravenous paracetamol as a control group (Group P).The blood samples for thiol/disulfide homeostasis were collected as follows; before induction of anesthesia (T0),before pneumoperitoneum (T1),following post-deflation and discontinuation of anesthesia (T2) and postoperative 24th hour (T3).Simultaneous blood samples for C-reactive protein were also collected. The pre and postoperative urea, creatinine, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels were measured. Results: A total of 69 patients were included in the study. The patient’s characteristics and intraoperative variables were comparable between groups (p>0.05). The number of patients requiring rescue analgesia, the total amount of analgesic used, VAS scores, and postoperative side effects were significantly lower in Group IP (p<0.001).There decrease in native and total thiol levels at T1, T2, T3 measurement points was significant in Group IP (p<0.001). In both groups, the comparison to baseline values demonstrated no significant changes in terms of disulfide level (p>0.05).The simultaneous CRP levels indicated a significant increase at the postoperative 24.hour in both groups (p<0.001). The difference between groups was insignificant (p>0.05). There was a significant increase in urea and creatinine levels in patients of Group IP (p<0.05). Conclusion: The pre-emptive administration of ibuprofen provided an effective pain control after gynecologic laparoscopy. However, ibuprofen changed the thiol/disulfide homeostasis in favor of oxidation and had no beneficial effect in surgically induced oxidative stress.

We report the case of a reciprocating tachycardia using a purely retrograde decremental slow-conducting accessory pathway. High density 3D mapping of the atrial insertion reveals a large area of specific potentials at the level of the tricuspid annulus, which can be regarded as an accessory conduction network

Worldwide, Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) and M. synoviae (MS) are the main agents responsible for chronic respiratory disease in poultry. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate their occurrence. We searched electronic databases to find peer-reviewed publications reporting the molecular detection of MG and MS in poultry and used meta-analysis to estimate their pooled occurrence (combined flock and individual), aggregating results at the regional and national levels. We performed a subgroup meta-analysis for subpopulations (broilers, layers, breeders, and diverse poultry including turkeys, ducks, and ostriches) and used meta-regression with categorical modifiers. We retrieved 2,294 publications from six electronic databases and included 85 publications from 33 countries that reported 62 studies with 22,162 samples for MG and 48 studies with 26,413 samples for MS. The pooled occurrence was 38.4% (95% CI: 23.5-54.5) for MS and 27.0% (20.4-34.2) for MG. Among regions, Europe and Central Asia had the lowest occurrence for both pathogens, while MG and MS were highly prevalent in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. MG occurrence was higher in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan, whereas China, Egypt, and Ethiopia reported a higher occurrence of MS. MS and MG were more prevalent in the breeders and layers (62.6% and 31.2%, respectively) than in diverse poultry. The year of publication, the sample size, and the level of ambient air pollution (measured indirectly by PM2.5) were associated with the occurrence of both mycoplasmas. Our study revealed a high and heterogeneous occurrence of MG and MS and justifies the need for an early detection and improved control measures to reduce the spread of these pathogens.

Approaches using microsatellite markers are considered the gold standard for modern population-genetic studies. However, though they have found application in research into various platyhelminth taxa, they remained substantially underutilized in the study of monogeneans. In the present study, a newly-developed set of 24 microsatellite markers was used to investigate the genetic diversity of the generalist monogenean species D. vistulae. The analyzed parasite specimens were collected from 13 cyprinoid species from 11 sites in the Apennine and Balkan peninsulas. A total of 159 specimens were genotyped at each of the loci and the number of alleles per locus ranged from 2 to 16, with a mean number of 6.958 alleles per locus. Exceptionally high genetic diversity was observed among D. vistulae individuals in the southern Balkans, suggesting that this region might represent the center of diversification of the genus in Europe, from where Dactylogyrus parasites expanded into the north. The initial clustering analysis divided all investigated specimens into three major clusters; however, the results of the subsequent analyses revealed the existence of various subpopulations, suggesting that the population structure of D. vistulae is associated with the diversification of their cyprinoid hosts. In addition, partition of the parasite population was observed in regions of the sympatric occurrence of two host species, indicating that these hosts may represent a barrier to gene flow, even for generalist parasite species.

Background: Pulmonary vascular endothelial activation, inflammation, and stress oxidative have been implicated in adverse clinical outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Chronic lung problems such as asthma may affect the consequences of pneumonia.The present study aimed to assess the effects of asthma on the oxidative stress, inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction biomarkers in children pneumonia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed at Amir Kabir Hospital affiliated to Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran. Participants were 25 children with severe CAP and asthma (group I), 25 children with severe CAP (group II), and 25 healthy children (group III) with 2 to 6 years of age. Fasting blood samples were taken to the assay of serum malondialdehyde (MDA), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), and Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1). Results: We observed a significant reduction in TAC in groups I and II compared with group III. This reduction was significantly higher in group I than in group II. Also, we observed a significant increase in MDA and TNF-α in groups I and II compared with group III. The increase in MDA was significantly higher in group I than in group II. VCAM-1 and PAI-1 as endothelial dysfunction biomarkers increased significantly in group I compared with groups II and III. Also, VCAM-1 and PAI-1 increased significantly in group II compared with groups III. Conclusions: Asthma can exacerbate the consequences of pneumonia in children by increasing oxidative stress, inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction.

Changing climatic conditions and unsustainable land use are perceived as major threats to savannas worldwide. In the past, land use in African savannas was dominated by livestock-farming as one of the major economic products, which led to degraded, shrub encroached pastures in many regions. One response to this widespread degradation is a shift from land use dominated by cattle to strategies characterized by animal compositions with more mixed feeding regimes and higher browser proportions. However, the consequences for ecosystem properties and processes remain so far largely unclear. We used the ecohydrological, spatially explicit savanna model EcoHyD to assess the impacts of two contrasting, herbivore-related land use strategies on a Namibian savannah: grazing versus browsing herbivores. We varied the densities of grazers and browsers and determined the resulting composition and diversity of the plant community, total vegetation cover, soil moisture and water use by plants. Our results show that properties making plants less attractive to herbivores were best adapted to different densities of grazing (cattle) or browsing (pure browsing wildlife) animals. Also, properties leading to a competitive advantage under limited water availability were among the dominant ones. Overall, the results are in line with our expectations: we found heavy shrub encroachment with a loss of the perennial grass matrix under high stocking rates of cattle. A novel and unexpected result was that regardless of the density of browsers, grass cover and plant functional diversity were significantly higher in wildlife scenarios. This increased grass cover, but also the higher total cover improved water uptake by plants. We conclude that in contrast to grazers, browsers even in high densities do not lead to ecosystem degradation, but rather sustain a diverse vegetation with high cover of perennial grasses over a long time, implying also a lower erosion risk and higher provision of ecosystem services.

In this work we consider a generalized Ostrovsky equation depending on two arbitrary functions and we make an in-depth study of this equation. We obtain the Lie symmetries which are admitted by this equation and some exact solutions as a periodic or solitary waves, obtained through ordinary and partial differential equations. Also, by means of the concept of multiplier, we obtain a wide range of conservation laws which preserve properties of the generalized Ostrovsky equation.

OBJECTIVES The objectives of this study were to understand the challenges faced by early adopters of MIS mitral surgery in the national health system in the United Kingdom. It was to (i) capture the significance of the scrutiny introduced by reporting surgeon specific results during the introduction of surgical innovation, (ii) understand how individual personality and behaviour helped these surgeons succeed despite, in many cases, little wider support, (iii) to help more surgeons adopt these patient-centred techniques. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS The study is based on a qualitative exploration of the reported experiences of all ten early adopters of MIS cardiac surgery in the NHS between 2006-2016. Interviewees were recruited by invitation through their professional society (BISMICS). All interviewees consented to the process; ethical permission was not deemed necessary. RESULTS The experience of introducing surgical innovation into the NHS was unanimously noted to be difficult with few incentives and many systemic and institutional obstacles. Despite this there was a general belief in pushing forward with these patient centred procedures while accumulating the evidence to support it. CONCLUSIONS Individual determination, confidence, mental agility and self-reflection were seen as characteristics of those who were successful. All surgeons agreed that the reporting of surgeon specific results were not conducive to adoption of innovation in teams. Starting a new program as two surgeons appeared to help reduce perceived pressures. Surgical innovation and its early adoption are always likely to be difficult and needs to be recognised as such, within the NHS

Breast cancer is the first cancer associated with cutaneous metastasis (CM). The clinical presentation of these metastases is very broad. We report an original case of carcinoma en cuirasse associated with zosteriform metastasis that announced the developing of contralateral breast cancer.”

The force exerted on particles is of great significance to the flow and reaction characteristics of particles in gasifier. In this study, the unbalanced thrust, especially its magnitude, of a single char particle induced by chemical reactions during combustion process is investigated numerically, based on the random distribution of active sites. It is revealed that the nonuniform distribution of active sites directly leads to the nonuniform release of gaseous products, which accounts for the net induced thrust of particles. The effects of active site ratio, ambient gas temperature and particle diameter on the induced thrust of reaction particle were investigated. The results show that the induced thrust on particles could be equal to the magnitude of particle gravity. The induced thrust decreases with the increase of active area and particle diameter. And it is enhanced with the increase of ambient temperature.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the move towards home spirometry monitoring, including in children. Our aim was to determine whether the remote supervision of spirometry by a physiologist improves the technical quality and failure rate of the manoeuvres. Method: Children with cystic fibrosis who had been provided with NuvoAir home spirometers were randomly allocated to either supervised or unsupervised home spirometry following a detailed training session. Home spirometry was performed every 2 weeks for 12 weeks. Tests were assigned a quality factor (QF) using our laboratory grading system as per ATS/ERS standards, with tests marked from A to D, or Fail. In our laboratory we aim for QF A in all spirometry tests, but report results of QF B or C with a cautionary note. QF A was therefore the primary outcome, and QF A-C the secondary outcome. Results: 61 patients were enrolled; 166 measurements were obtained in the supervised group, and 153 in the unsupervised group. Significantly more measurements achieved QF A in the supervised compared to unsupervised group (89% vs 74%; p= <0.001) whilst proportions reaching grade A-C were similar (99% vs 95%; p=0.1). All significant declines in spirometry results had a clinical rather than technical reason. Family/patient feedback for both arms was very positive. Conclusion: These results suggest that home spirometry in children should ideally be remotely supervised by a physiologist, but acceptable results can be obtained if resources do not allow this, provided that training is delivered and results monitored according to our protocol.

Editorial

RAAS could play a substantial role in the pathophysiology of COVID-19. Also, the dynamics of the HPA axis may have changed in COVID-19. So, we aimed to assess RAAS and the HPA axis in COVID-19 suspicious outpatients referred to 16-hour comprehensive health centers in Abadan. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Serum cortisol and aldosterone measurements and blood grouping were done. Clinical symptoms of the positive PCR group were followed up on for four weeks. SPO2 was significantly lower in the positive PCR group, but the respiratory rate was significantly higher (P= 0.03 and P=0.001, respectively). Outpatients with the O blood group showed higher levels of cortisol in comparison to those with A and AB blood groups (P= 0.003 and P= 0.03 respectively) in the positive PCR group. Negative PCR individuals with the AB blood type had significantly higher levels of cortisol compared with those who had A (P= 0.02) and O (P=0.03) blood types. We saw significantly higher levels of aldosterone in males of the negative PCR group in comparison with females (P= 0.05). Cortisol (OR= 0.937, P= 0.033) and aldosterone (OR= 1.005, P= 0.020) levels had a decreasing and increasing effect on the chances of respiratory symptoms occurring over time, respectively. Also, over time, women were twice as likely as men to develop neurologic symptoms (OR= 0.530, P= 0.015). Cortisol and aldosterone are associated with the chance of respiratory symptoms occurring over time. However, the levels of these two markers do not seem to be related to the lower grades of COVID-19.

In this paper a collaborative writing group explores how we, two rivers, express ourselves over time, place and space, our energies long interpreted as veins and arteries carrying the Country’s life affirming blood. Voiced as River: I, River, this position reflects a worldview in which interrelationship with living river is normal, and River Spirit is ever-present. It is a position underpinned by Indigenous narratives as riverine expressions of place-based love. At times the paper is also voiced as writing group or individuals, with voices being interchanged where required for smooth reading. We see this as part of the decolonising process, which feels liberating and healing amongst the writers. Each writer is equally valued as co-creator, contributor, narrator and story teller. The two Rivers, being Martuwarra Fitzroy River (Kimberley, Western Australia), and Unamen Shipu Romaine River (North Shore, Québec, Canada) illustrate a common condition of being, through heritage, life, change and possibility. Through stories and voices, the socio-scientific implications of colonisation and lost connections become clear, considering the interaction, the dialogue and the cultural synthesis of living water systems that have always incorporated all life forms into rivers of life. As a way of navigating towards wholeness, Aboriginal knowledge systems and narratives for healing are used to bring together findings of this intercultural river learning journey.

This paper is mainly devoted to the existence of pseudo anti-periodic solutions of parabolic boundary differential equations by the measure theory. A new class of functions called Stepanov-like (µ0,ν0)-pseudo anti-periodic functions is proposed, which generalizes the classical weighted pseudo anti-periodic functions in Stepanov sense. The completeness of the space composed of these functions is proved. Translation invariance and two composition theorems are also established. As an application different from parabolic equations with linear boundary conditions, one shows that semi-linear parabolic evolution equations with inhomogeneous boundary conditions admit a (µ0,ν0)-pseudo anti-periodic solution in interpolation and extrapolation spaces. An example is presented to verify the existence of pseudo anti-periodic solution.

Background: After the detection of the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Korea on January 20, 2019, it has triggered three major outbreaks. To decrease the disease burden of COVID-19, social distancing and active mask wearing were encouraged, reducing the number of patients with influenza-like illness and altering the detection rate of influenza and respiratory viruses in the Korea Influenza and Respiratory Viruses Surveillance System (KINRESS). We examined the changes in respiratory viruses due to COVID-19 in South Korea and virological causes of the high detection rate of human rhinovirus (hRV) in 2020. Methods: We collected 52,684 oropharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swab samples from patients with influenza-like illness in cooperation with KINRESS from 2016 to 2020. Influenza virus and other respiratory viruses were confirmed using real-time RT-PCR. The weekly detection rate was used to compare virus detection patterns. Results: Non-enveloped virus (hRV, human bocavirus, and human adenovirus) detection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic were maintained. The detection rate of hRV significantly increased in 2020 compared with that in 2019 and was negatively correlated with number of COVID-19-confirmed cases in 2020. The distribution of strains and genetic characteristics in hRV did not differ between 2019 and 2020. Conclusions: The extremely low detection rate of enveloped viruses resulted from efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea. The high detection rate of hRV may be related to resistance against environmental conditions as a non-enveloped virus and the long period of viral shedding from patients.

Worldwide, significant agricultural activities take place in temperate climate zones In regions where groundwater is used for irrigation, water losses take place due to evaporation. Previous studies demonstrated the utility of stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in estimating evaporative water loss experienced during return flow back to an aquifer. Unlike arid regions where the other studies took place, this study examined the region around Kalamazoo, Michigan, the United States, which experiences a more temperate climate.. Irrigation in the Kalamazoo area primarily uses center-pivot systems supplied by wells, unlike flood irrigation in previous study areas. Water samples were taken periodically from wells close to center-pivot irrigation systems. Water losses due to evaporation were estimated using stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes, which are effective tracers for water. This approach was possible in the Kalamazoo area since the distribution of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in local precipitation, which is the source of groundwater recharge, is known based on years of measurements. The link between agriculture and meteorology is thus clear. Isotope analyses during the irrigation season suggest water loss due to evaporation is in the range of 9.1% and 14.3%. This is less than what was estimated by previous studies in arid climate zones. Evaporative water loss was greater at wells near cornfields than at wells that supplied other crop types. There was little expected correlation between the groundwater’s isotope ratio values and the change in chloride concentration. This is likely due to an external input of chloride from road salt used in winter months.

In this study, a Bayesian copula spatio-temporal drought risk analysis (BCSDA) method is developed through coupling Bayesian copula and spatio-temporal analysis into a general framework. BCSDA can effectively identify drought characteristics and reveal the temporal and spatial variation, as well as analyze drought risk at different guaranteed rates based on the influence of multivariate interaction. Then, BCSDA is applied to the Balkhash Lake Basin (a typical arid watershed in Central Asia) for analyzing drought risk during 1901-2017. Major findings are: (i) Balkhash Lake Basin suffered 53 drought events in 1901-2017, and the most severe drought event occurred in October 1973 to January 1977, which lasted for 40 months and developed into an extreme drought during April 1975 to June 1976, affecting 335,800 square kilometers of the study basin; (ii) most of the drought events developed in the direction of east-west, and Lli River delta and the alluvial plain were the most severe of drought (47.2%), followed by the plateau desert area (28.3%) and the arid grassland in north of Balkhash Lake (24.5%); (iii) drought shows significant seasonality which usually began in spring and summer (64.2%) and ended in summer and autumn (66.0%); (iv) in Balkhash Lake Basin, multivariate characteristics (duration, severity and area) would significantly affect drought risk; (v) the range of drought risk would be [1.9%, 18.1%], [3.7%, 33.1%], [8.7%, 46.0%], [16.0%, 55.1%] and [27.6%, 59.8%] when guarantee rate is 0.99, 0.98, 0.95, 0.90 and 0.80.