loading page

Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo
  • +17
  • Adrien Michel Deroubaix,
  • Judith Johanna Hoelzemann,
  • Rita Ynoue,
  • Idir Bouarar,
  • Ediclê de Souza Fernandes Duarte,
  • Hendrik Elbern,
  • Pablo Lichtig,
  • Leila Droprinchinski Martins,
  • Nilton Manuel Évora do Rosário,
  • Guy P. Brasseur,
  • rafaela Cruz Alves,
  • Gregori de Arruda Moreira,
  • phiipp franke,
  • Maria de Fatima Andrade,
  • Anne Caroline Lange,
  • Willian Lemker Andreao,
  • Lya Lugon,
  • rizzieri Pedruzzi,
  • Taciana Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque,
  • Lya Lugon
Adrien Michel Deroubaix
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Judith Johanna Hoelzemann
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Author Profile
Rita Ynoue
Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Sao Paulo
Author Profile
Idir Bouarar
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Author Profile
Ediclê de Souza Fernandes Duarte
University of Évora, University of Évora
Author Profile
Hendrik Elbern
RIU, RIU
Author Profile
Pablo Lichtig
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Author Profile
Leila Droprinchinski Martins
Federal University of Technology, Campus Londrina, Federal University of Technology, Campus Londrina
Author Profile
Nilton Manuel Évora do Rosário
Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo
Author Profile
Guy P. Brasseur
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Author Profile
rafaela Cruz Alves
Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo
Author Profile
Gregori de Arruda Moreira
Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo
Author Profile
phiipp franke
Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Troposphere (IEK-8), Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Troposphere (IEK-8)
Author Profile
Maria de Fatima Andrade
Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas da Universidade Federal de São Paulo
Author Profile
Anne Caroline Lange
Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Troposphere (IEK-8), Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Troposphere (IEK-8)
Author Profile
Willian Lemker Andreao
Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering
Author Profile
Lya Lugon
École des Ponts ParisTech
Author Profile
rizzieri Pedruzzi
Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering
Author Profile
Taciana Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque
Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering
Author Profile
Lya Lugon
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Author Profile

Abstract

An intercomparison of four air quality models is performed in the tropical megacity of Sao Paulo with the perspective of developing an air quality forecasting system based on a regional model ensemble. During three contrasting periods marked by different types of pollution events, we analyze the concentrations of the main regulated pollutants (Ozone, CO, SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) compared to observations of a dense air quality monitoring network. The modeled concentrations of CO, PM and NOx are in good agreement with the observations for the temporal variability and the range of variation. However, the transport of pollutants due to biomass burning pollution events can strongly affect the air quality in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo with increases of CO, PM2.5 and PM10, and is associated with an important inter-model variability. Our results show that each model has periods and pollutants for which it has the best agreement. The observed day-to-day variability of ozone concentration is well reproduced by the models, as well as the average diurnal cycle in terms of timing. Overall the performance for ozone of the median of the regional model ensemble is the best in terms of time and magnitude because it takes advantage of the capabilities of each model. Therefore, an ensemble prediction of regional models is promising for an operational air quality forecasting system for the megacity of Sao Paulo.