Abstract

A magma soliton is used to compute the timing of earthquakes on the Reykjanes ridge, in Iceland, and the occurrence and duration of the volcanic eruption in Geldingadalir by Fagradalsfjall, in February 2021. The velocity of the magma soliton is computed using earthquakes observed underwater on the Reykjanes ridge in November 2019 and earthquakes that occurred by Fagradalsfjall in October 2020. This velocity also determines the shape, height and spatial extent, of the magma soliton. The volume of lava in the Geldingadalur-Fagradalsfjall eruption is computed, depending of the width of the magma soliton, and compared to measurements. The timing of subsequent earthquake clusters is then predicted, caused by the magma soliton passing by the remining three volcanic zones on the Reykjanes peninsula.