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1852 climatology (global change) Preprints

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climatology (global change) ecology analytical climatology physical geography meteorology applied climatology geology terrestrial ecology hydrology environmental management oceanography biological sciences environmental sciences other biological sciences geography geography of natural resources plant biology ecological applications soil moisture biogeography atmospheric sciences freshwater ecology climate change impacts and adaptation paleoclimatology groundwater
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Please note: These are preprints and have not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.
Analysis of future heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta through CMIP6-WRF dynamical dow...
Ziping Zuo
Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung

Ziping Zuo

and 5 more

November 09, 2022
Recent worldwide heatwaves have shattered temperature records in many regions. In this study, we applied a dynamical downscaling method on the high-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-1-2-HR) to obtain projections of the summer thermal environments and heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) considering three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the middle and late 21st century. Results indicated that relative to the temperatures in the 2010s, the mean increases in the summer daytime and nighttime temperatures in the 2040s will be 0.7–0.8 °C and 0.9–1.1 °C, respectively. In the 2090s, they will be 0.5–3.1 °C and 0.7–3.4 °C, respectively. SSP1-2.6 is the only scenario in which the temperatures in the 2090s are expected to be lower than those in the 2040s. Compared with those in the 2010s, hot extremes are expected to be more frequent, more intense, more extensive, and longer-lasting in the future in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. In the 2010s, a heatwave occurred in the PRD lasted for 6 days on average, with a mean daily maximum temperature of 34.4 °C. In the 2040s, the heatwave duration and intensity are expected to increase by 2–3 days and 0.2–0.4 °C in all three scenarios. In the 2090s, the increase in these values will be 23 days and 36.0 °C in SSP5-8.5. Moreover, a 10-year extreme high temperature in the 2010s is expected to occur at a monthly frequency from June to September.
Phenological Classification and Atmospheric Drought Response of Riparian Vegetation i...
Conor McMahon
Dar Roberts

Conor McMahon

and 4 more

November 01, 2022
Access to groundwater leaves riparian plants in drylands resistant to atmospheric drought but vulnerable to changes in climate or water use that reduce streamflow and groundwater tables. Despite the vulnerability of riparian vegetation to water balance changes few extensible methods have been developed to automatically map riparian plants at the scale of individual stands or stream reaches, to assess their response to changes in moisture due to drought and climate change, and to contrast those responses across plant functional types. We used LiDAR and a sub-annual timeseries of NDVI to map vegetation and then assessed drought response by comparing a drought index to variation in a remotely sensed metric of plant health. First, a random forest model was built to classify vegetation communities based on phenological changes in Sentinel-2 NDVI. This model produced community classes with an overall accuracy of 97.9%; accuracy for the riparian vegetation class was 98.9%. Following this initial classification, LiDAR measurements of vegetation height were used to split the riparian class into structural subclasses. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis was applied to a timeseries of Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2018, producing annual sub-pixel fractions of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and soil. Relationships were assessed within structural subclasses between mid-summer green vegetation fraction (GV) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a measure of soil moisture drought. Among riparian vegetation subclasses, all groups showed significant positive correlations between SPEI and GV, indicating an increase in healthy plant material during wetter years. However, the relationship was strongest for herbaceous plants (R^2=0.509, m=0.0278), intermediate for shrubs (R^2=0.339, m=0.0262), and weakest for the largest trees (R^2=0.1373, m=0.0145). This implies decoupling of larger riparian plants from the impacts of atmospheric drought due to subsidies provided by groundwater resources. Our method was extended successfully to multiple climatically-dissimilar dryland systems in the American Southwest, and the results provide a basis for ongoing studies on the fine-scale drought response and climatic vulnerability of riparian woodlands.
The Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom : A globally distributed but not an ubiquitous event
Quentin PILLOT
Baptiste Suchéras-Marx

Quentin PILLOT

and 4 more

November 01, 2022
The Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom (LMBB) is a late Miocene to early Pliocene oceanographic event characterized by high accumulation rates of opal from diatoms and calcite from calcareous nannofossils and planktic foraminifera. This multi-million year event has been recognized in sediment cores from the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The numerous studies discussing the LMBB lead us to believe that this event is omnipresent in all oceans, although this hypothesis need to be tested. Moreover, the origin of this event is still widely discussed. In this study we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the geographical and temporal aspects of the LMBB by compiling published ocean drilling (DSDP, ODP and IODP) records of sedimentation rates, CaCO\textsubscript{3} and opal and terrigenous accumulation rates that cover the late Miocene and early Pliocene interval. Our data compilation shows that traces of the LMBB are present in many different locations but in a very heterogeneous way, highlighting that the LMBB is not a pervasive event. The compilation in addition shows that the sites where the LMBB is recorded are mainly located in areas with a high productivity regime (i.e. upwelling systems). We suggest that the most likely hypothesis to explain the LMBB is a global increase in upwelling intensity due to an increase in wind strength or an increase in deep water formation, ramping up global thermohaline circulation.
Kinetic energy generation in cross-equatorial flow and the Somali Jet
Ashwin K Seshadri
Vishal Vijay Dixit

Ashwin K Seshadri

and 1 more

October 31, 2022
In response to north-south pressure gradients set by the annual march of the Sun, a cross-equatorial flow that turns to become a low-level Somali jet at around $10^{\circ}$ N is established in the lower troposphere over the Indian ocean. This flow plays a fundamental role in the Indian monsoon. A mechanistic understanding of drivers of this flow is lacking. Here we present a seasonal-mean analysis of the Kinetic Energy (KE) budget of the low-level flow using high spatiotemporal resolution ERA5 reanalysis to identify sources and sinks of KE. We find that the largest KE generation occurs around east African orography where the Somali jet forms while a significant KE is also generated over western Ghats and the Madagascar Island (‘hot spots’). These regions are distant from core monsoon precipitation regions, suggesting that local circulations driven by condensation do not directly produce the bulk of KE during monsoons. A unique KE balance supports the generation of Somali jet, with KE generation balanced by nonlinear KE advection as it forms. Over oceans, KE generation occurs mainly due to cross-isobaric meridional winds in the boundary layer. In contrast, over east African highlands and western Ghats KE generation maximizes just above the boundary layer and mainly occurs due to interaction of flow with orography. We propose a simple decomposition of lower tropospheric KE generation into contributions from surface pressure, orography and free-tropospheric gradients that corroborates the important role played by surface pressure gradients once adjusted for effects of orography.
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