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1134 environmental sciences Preprints

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Please note: These are preprints and have not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.
What is Mineral Informatics?
Anirudh Prabhu
smorrison

Anirudh Prabhu

and 13 more

June 10, 2022
Minerals are information-rich materials that offer researchers a glimpse into the evolution of planetary bodies. Thus it is important to extract, analyze, and interpret this abundance of information in order to improve our understanding of the planetary bodies in our solar system and the role our planet’s geosphere played in the origin and evolution of life. Over the past decades, data-driven efforts in mineralogy have seen a gradual increase. The development and application of data science and analytics methods to mineralogy, while extremely promising, has also been somewhat ad-hoc in nature. In order to systematize and synthesize the direction of these efforts, we introduce the concept of “Mineral Informatics”. Mineral Informatics is the next frontier for researchers working with mineral data. In this paper, we present our vision for Mineral Informatics, the X-Informatics underpinnings that led to its conception, the needs, challenges, opportunities, and future directions. The intention of this paper is not to create a new specific field or a sub-field as a separate silo, but to document the needs of researchers studying minerals in various contexts and fields of study, to demonstrate how the systemization and increased access to mineralogical data will increase cross- and interdisciplinary studies, and how data science and informatics methods are a key next step in integrative mineralogical studies.
An Investigation of the Populations Impacted by California Wildfire Evacuation Orders
Jena Alsup
Prathmesh Sonawane

Jena Alsup

and 2 more

December 15, 2021
The frequency, size, and intensity of wildfires in California have increased substantially in recent years, leading to widespread mandatory evacuations affecting millions of residents. However, because evacuation orders are implemented by local agencies, there is limited quantitative evidence on the scope of evacuations statewide. In order to improve the understanding of wildfire evacuations, we assembled information on historical evacuation orders for two distinct wildfire-prone regions --- Fresno and Sonoma county --- in California. This data was used to understand how the frequency and extent of evacuations have changed over time. We then combined this information with census data to characterize which populations have been most affected by evacuation orders. Ultimately, our work aims to quantify this important element of wildfire impacts in key regions around California. Collectively, it provides a starting point for a public database of evacuation orders that could be used by researchers and policymakers to better understand dynamics and improve decision-making around wildfire evacuations.
Improving the Calibration of Impact Plate Bedload Monitoring Systems by Filtering Out...
Tobias Nicollier
Gilles Antoniazza

Tobias Nicollier

and 4 more

August 13, 2021
The spatio-temporal variability of bedload transport processes poses considerable challenges for bedload monitoring systems. One such system, the Swiss plate geophone (SPG), has been calibrated in several gravel-bed streams using direct sampling techniques. The linear calibration coefficients linking the signal recorded by the SPG system to the transported bedload can vary between different monitoring stations by about a factor of six, for reasons that remain unclear. Recent controlled flume experiments allowed us to identify the grain-size distribution of the transported bedload as a further site-specific factor influencing the signal response of the SPG system, along with the flow velocity and the bed roughness. Additionally, impact tests performed at various field sites suggested that seismic waves generated by impacting particles can propagate over several plates of an SPG array, and thus potentially bias the bedload estimates. To gain an understanding of this phenomenon, we adapted a test flume by installing a partition wall to shield individual sensor plates from impacting particles. We show that the SPG system is sensitive to seismic waves that propagate from particle impacts on neighboring plates or on the concrete bed close to the sensors. Based on this knowledge, we designed a filter method that uses time-frequency information to identify and eliminate these “apparent” impacts. Finally, we apply the filter to four field calibration datasets and show that it significantly reduces site-to-site differences between calibration coefficients and enables the derivation of a single calibration curve for total bedload at all four sites.
Understanding Urban Water Sustainability Transitions to One Water Using Science-based...
Donya Dezfooli
Mazdak Arabi

Donya Dezfooli

and 4 more

December 22, 2021
Water management practices in cities around the world are faced with growing social and environmental pressures. Unfortunately, the linear “take-make-waste” approach, previously recognized as the most conclusive practice to address water-related issues, has been found to be unsustainable due to its dependence on the limited availability of energy and resources. It is, therefore, necessary to change the current linear approach dominant in most cities across the world to one that utilizes a high degree of reuse and recycling that is known as “One Water”. The goal of this study is to evaluate a series of expert interviews that were conducted with utilities across the US and Canada to gain insights into implementing One Water principles. Interpreting several interviews is the key step to provide water managers with an understanding of the perspective and required actions towards transitions in urban water management. The results indicated that although several pressures were described in the expert interviews responses, climate change was the most frequently described pressure, followed by water quality impairments and population growth. Moreover, it has been identified that the studied cities have implemented several strategies such as green infrastructure, recycled water, desalination, and stormwater management to achieve this holistic approach. The thematic analysis revealed that all cities demonstrated the importance of cultural change to break down silos and support various technological solutions. Further investigations revealed that cities encounter several barriers that inhibit the One Water transition. One of the most frequently discussed barriers was related to financial challenges in most cities, especially in light of the pandemic when substantial cities lost their revenue. In addition to the financial challenges, lack of regulatory process and framework, institutional barriers for expanding One Water strategies, short-term thinking, lack of collaboration, community resistance to change, lack of public support, and water rights were mentioned by participants as the top barriers.
Ozone-forced Southern Annular Mode during Antarctic Stratospheric Warming Events
Martin Jucker
Rishav Goyal

Martin Jucker

and 1 more

January 31, 2022
Southern Hemisphere (SH) Stratospheric Warming Events (SWEs) are usually associated with a negative phase of the tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the following summer. In contrast, using ensemble climate model simulations we show that the anomalously high ozone concentrations typically occurring during SWEs can force periods of persistent positive tropospheric SAM in austral spring by increasing lower stratospheric static stability and changing troposphere-to-stratosphere wave propagation. Eventually, the tropospheric SAM switches sign to its negative phase in late spring/early summer, but this ‘downward propagation’ of the stratospheric signal does not occur in simulations without seasonal cycle. We find that the downward propagation is forced both dynamically by adiabatic heating and radiatively by increased shortwave absorption by ozone due to the seasonal cycle. Capturing this ozone forcing mechanism in models requires the inclusion of interactive ozone, which has important implications for the predictive skill of current seasonal forecasting systems.
Projecting future fire regimes in semiarid systems of the inland northwestern U.S.: i...
Jianning Ren
Erin Hanan

Jianning Ren

and 7 more

November 01, 2021
Fire regimes are influenced by both exogenous drivers (e.g., increases in atmospheric CO2; and climate change) and endogenous drivers (e.g., vegetation and soil/litter moisture), which constrain fuel loads and fuel aridity. Herein, we identified how exogenous and endogenous drivers can interact to affect fuels and fire regimes in a semiarid watershed in the inland northwestern U.S. throughout the 21st century. We used a coupled ecohydrologic and fire regime model to examine how climate change and CO2 scenarios influence fire regimes over space and time. In this semiarid watershed we found that, in the mid-21st century (2040s), the CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation productivity outstripped the effects of climate change-induced fuel decreases, resulting in greater fuel loading and, thus, a net increase in fire size and burn probability; however, by the late-21st century (2070s), climatic warming dominated over CO2 fertilization, thus reducing fuel loading and fire activity. We also found that, under future climate change scenarios, fire regimes will shift progressively from being flammability to fuel-limited, and we identified a metric to quantify this shift: the ratio of the change in fuel loading to the change in its aridity. The threshold value for which this metric indicates a flammability versus fuel-limited regime differed between grasses and woody species but remained stationary over time. Our results suggest that identifying these thresholds in other systems requires narrowing uncertainty in exogenous drivers, such as future precipitation patterns and CO2 effects on vegetation.
From Bright Windows to Dark Spots: Snow Cover Controls Melt Pond Optical Properties d...
Philipp Anhaus
Christian Katlein

Philipp Anhaus

and 4 more

October 01, 2021
Melt ponds have a strong impact on the Arctic surface energy balance and the ice-associated ecosystem because they transmit more solar radiation compared to bare ice. In the existing literature, melt ponds are considered as bright windows to the ocean, even during freeze-up in autumn. In the central Arctic during the summer-autumn transition in 2018, we encountered a situation where more snow accumulated on refrozen melt ponds compared to the adjacent bare ice, leading to a reduction in light transmittance of the ponds even below that of bare ice. Supporting results from a radiative transfer model suggest that melt ponds with a snow cover >0.04 m lead to lower light transmittance than adjacent bare ice. This scenario has not been described in the literature before, but has potentially strong implications for example on autumn ecosystem activity, oceanic heat budget and thermodynamic ice growth.
Water Cycle Intensification: A Complementary Approach
Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy
Yannis Markonis

Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy

and 1 more

July 11, 2022
The difference between precipitation and evaporation has been extensively used to characterize the water cycle’s response to global warming. However, when it comes to the global scale, the information provided by this metric is inconclusive. Herein, we discuss how the sum of precipitation and evaporation could complement the assessment of global water cycle intensification. To support our argument, we present a brief yet robust correlation analysis of both metrics in four reanalysis data sets (20CR v3, ERA-20C, ERA5, and NCEP/NCAR R1). Additionally, by combining the two metrics, we investigate how well the global water cycle fluxes are represented in the four reanalyses. Among them, we observe four different responses to the temperature increase between 1950-2010, with ERA5 showing the best agreement with the intensification hypothesis. We argue that these discrepancies would remain elusive with the traditional approach, which makes the utilization of the sum of precipitation and evaporation a valuable addition to our methodological toolbox for the assessment of the global water cycle intensification.
Detrital carbonate minerals in Earth's element cycles
Gerrit Müller
Jack J Middelburg

Gerrit Müller

and 3 more

February 18, 2022
We investigate if the commonly neglected riverine detrital carbonate fluxes might balance several chemical mass balances of the global ocean. Particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) concentrations in riverine suspended sediments, i.e., carbon contained by these detrital carbonate minerals, was quantified at the basin and global scale. Our approach is based on globally representative datasets of riverine suspended sediment composition, catchment properties and a two-step regression procedure. The present day global riverine PIC flux is estimated at 3.1 ± 0.3 Tmol C/y (13% of total inorganic carbon export and 4 % of total carbon export), with a flux-weighted mean concentration of 0.26 ± 0.03 wt%. The flux prior to damming was 4.1 ± 0.5 Tmol C/y. PIC fluxes are concentrated in limestone-rich, rather dry and mountainous catchments of large rivers in Arabia, South East Asia and Europe with 2.2 Tmol C/y (67.6 %) discharged between 15 °N and 45 °N. Greenlandic and Antarctic meltwater discharge and ice-rafting additionally contribute 0.8 ± 0.3 Tmol C/y. This amount of detrital carbonate minerals annually discharged into the ocean implies a significant contribution of calcium (~ 4.75 Tmol Ca/y) and alkalinity fluxes (~ 10 Tmol(eq)/y) to marine mass balances and moderate inputs of strontium (~ 5 Gmol Sr/y), based on undisturbed riverine and cryospheric inputs and a dolomite/calcite ratio of 0.1. Magnesium fluxes (~ 0.25 Tmol Mg/y), mostly hosted by less-soluble dolomite, are rather negligible. These unaccounted fluxes help elucidating respective marine mass balances and potentially alter conclusions based on these budgets.
“Persia” redirects here. For other uses, see Iran (disambiguation) and Persia (disamb...
Loghman Khodakarami
Saied Pourmanafi

Loghman Khodakarami

and 3 more

October 26, 2021
Iran (Persian: ایران‎ Irān [ʔiːˈɾɒːn] (About this soundlisten)), also called Persia,[11] and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran,[a] is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan,[b] to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan, to the southeast by Pakistan, to the south by the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and to the west by Turkey and Iraq. Iran covers an area of 1,648,195 km2 (636,372 sq mi), with a population of 85 million.[12] It is the second-largest country in the Middle East (after Saudi Arabia), the sixth-largest entirely in Asia, and its capital and largest city is Tehran.
Chemical characterization of organic compounds involved in iodine-initiated new parti...
Yibei Wan
Xiangpeng Huang

Yibei Wan

and 5 more

August 25, 2022
Iodine-initiated new particle formation (I-NPF) has long been recognized in coastal hotspot regions. However, no prior work has studied the exact chemical composition of organic compounds and their role in the coastal I-NPF. Here we present an important complementary study to the ongoing laboratory and field researches of iodine nucleation in coastal atmosphere. Oxidation and NPF experiments with vapor emissions from real-world coastal macroalgae were simulated in a bag reactor. On the basis of comprehensive mass spectrometry measurements, we reported for the first time a series of volatile precursors and their oxidation products in gas and particle phases in such a highly complex system. Organic compounds overwhelmingly dominated over iodine in the new particle growth initiated by iodine species. The identity and transformation mechanisms of organic compounds were identified in this study to provide a more complete story of coastal NPF from low-tide macroalgal emission.
Using Community Science to Better Understand Lead Exposure Risks
Matthew Dietrich
John T Shukle

Matthew J. Dietrich

and 4 more

November 29, 2021
Lead (Pb) is a neurotoxicant that particularly harms young children. Urban environments are often plagued with elevated Pb in soils and dusts, posing a health exposure risk from inhalation and ingestion of these contaminated media. Thus, a better understanding of where to prioritize risk screening and intervention is paramount from a public health perspective. We have synthesized a large national dataset of Pb concentrations in household dusts from across the United States (U.S.), part of a community science initiative called “DustSafe.” Using these results, we have developed a straightforward logistic regression model that correctly predicts whether Pb is elevated (> 80 ppm) or low (< 80 ppm) in household dusts 75% of the time. Additionally, our model estimated 18% false negatives for elevated Pb, displaying that there was a low probability of elevated Pb in homes being misclassified. Our model uses only variables of approximate housing age and whether there is peeling paint in the interior of the home, illustrating how a simple and successful Pb predictive model can be generated if researchers ask the right screening questions. Scanning electron microscopy supports a common presence of Pb paint in several dust samples with elevated bulk Pb concentrations, which explains the predictive power of housing age and peeling paint in the model. This model was also implemented into an interactive mobile app that aims to increase community-wide participation with Pb household screening. The app will hopefully provide greater awareness of Pb risks and a highly efficient way to begin mitigation.
UK ammonia emissions estimated with satellite observations and GEOS-Chem
Eloise Marais
Alok K Pandey

Eloise Ann Marais

and 10 more

August 10, 2021
Agricultural emissions of ammonia (NH3) impact air quality, human health, and the vitality of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. In the UK, there are few direct policies regulating anthropogenic NH3 emissions and development of sustainable mitigation measures necessitates reliable emissions estimates. Here we use observations of column densities of NH3 from two space-based sensors (IASI and CrIS) with the GEOS-Chem model to derive top-down NH3 emissions for the UK at fine spatial (~10 km) and time (monthly) scales. We focus on March-September when there is adequate spectral signal to reliably retrieve NH3. We estimate total emissions of 272 Gg from IASI and 390 Gg from CrIS. Bottom-up emissions are 27% less than IASI and 49% less than CrIS. There are also differences in seasonality. Top-down and bottom-up emissions agree on a spring April peak due to fertilizer and manure application, but there is also a comparable summer July peak in the top-down emissions that is not in bottom-up inventories and appears to be associated with dairy cattle farming. We estimate relative errors in the top-down emissions of 11-36% for IASI and 9-27% for CrIS, dominated by column density retrieval errors. The bottom-up versus top-down emissions discrepancies estimated in this work impact model predictions of the environmental damage caused by NH3 emissions and warrant further investigation.
Pricing carbon emissions reduces health inequities from air pollution exposure
Xinyuan Huang
Vivek Srikrishnan

Xinyuan Huang

and 4 more

August 18, 2022
Climate mitigation can bring health co-benefits by improving air quality. Yet, whether mitigation will widen or narrow current health disparities remains unclear. Here we use a coupled climate-energy-health model to assess the effects of a global carbon price on the distribution of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and associated health risks across an ensemble of nearly 30,000 future scenarios. We find that pricing carbon consistently lowers the PM2.5-attributable death rates in lower-income countries by reducing fossil fuel burning (e.g., China and India). Since these countries are projected to have large ageing populations, the greatest reduction in global average PM2.5-attributable death rate is found in elderly populations, which are more vulnerable to air pollution than the other age groups. In contrast, the health effects in higher-income countries are more complex, because pricing carbon can increase the emissions from bioenergy use and land-use changes, counteracting the mortality decrease from reduced fossil fuel burning. Mitigation technology choices and complex interactions between age structures, energy use, and land use all influence the distribution of health effects. Our results highlight the importance of an improved understanding of regional characteristics and cross-sector dynamics for addressing the interconnected challenges of climate, health, and social inequalities.
Biogeosciences Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Scienc...
Dipankar Dwivedi
A L D Santos

Dipankar Dwivedi

and 26 more

October 27, 2021
This article is composed of three independent commentaries about the state of ICON principles (Goldman et al. 2021) in the AGU Biogeosciences section and discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Each commentary focuses on a different topic: Global collaboration, technology transfer and application (Section 2), Community engagement, citizen science, education, and stakeholder involvement (Section 3), and Field, experimental, remote sensing, and real-time data research and application (Section 4). We discuss needs and strategies for implementing ICON and outline short- and long-term goals. The inclusion of global data and international community engagement are key to tackle grand challenges in biogeosciences. Although recent technological advances and growing open-access information across the world have enabled global collaborations to some extent, several barriers ranging from technical to organizational to cultural have remained in advancing interoperability and tangible scientific progress in biogeosciences. Overcoming these hurdles is necessary to address pressing large-scale research questions and applications in the biogeosciences, where ICON principles are essential. Here, we list several opportunities for ICON, including coordinated experimentation and field observations across global sites, that are ripe for implementation in biogeosciences as a means to scientific advancements and social progress.
Multi-Mission Flood Mapper: A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data Based Tool for Rapi...
Sai Kiran Kuntla
Panchagnula Manjusree

Sai Kiran Kuntla

and 1 more

December 11, 2021
Floods are convincingly the most frequent and widespread natural hazard across the world. With an ample amount of literature forecasting increase in its frequency and magnitude further in the future, highly credible and efficient algorithms and tools are crucial for real-time flood monitoring. In this study, a highly efficient tool, Multi-Mission Flood Mapper, has been developed to delineate flood inundation extent without any human intervention from SAR images captured by multiple microwave SAR satellite missions, including ALOS PALSAR CEOS, ALOS 2 CEOS, COSMO-SkyMed, ENVISAT ASAR, ERS 1/2 CEOS, ERS 1/2 SAR(.E1, .E2), ICEYE, JERS CEOS, KOMPSAT-5, PAZ, RADARSAT-1 & -2, RCM, SAOCOM, SeaSat, Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X, and TanDEM-X. The efficacy of the developed tool is assessed by performing a test on a significant number of flood events in India having diverse flooding patterns and landforms. To manifest the performance of the tool, the step-by-step processing at the backend of the tool is discussed in detail in this study by taking a flood event along the Ganga River in India as a case study. The algorithm of the tool includes various processing steps: pre-processing that incorporate applying orbit file, calibrate to sigma naught, speckle filtering, terrain correction and linear to decibel conversion; thematic analysis that involves multi-segmentation and Otsu’s thresholding techniques; post-processing that consists of the elimination of hill shadows, applying majority filter, and masking out permanent water bodies. Thus derived flood inundation layer is observed to be highly accurate compared to the master image. The total time taken by the tool for processing is about 4 minutes for the given image. The developed tool would be beneficial for rapid flood inundation map generation on a timely basis for flood monitoring and relief management during a disaster. In addition, the flood inundation layers can also be used for calibration/validation of hydrological/hydraulic models, geospatial planning, and generating flood hazard maps. Also, the Multi-Mission Flood Mapper tool is facilitated with a user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI), making it look simple and easy to use.
Early and late cyanobacterial bloomers in a shallow, eutrophic lake
Kristin Painter
Jason J. Venkiteswaran

Kristin J. Painter

and 5 more

May 04, 2022
Cyanobacterial blooms present challenges for water treatment, especially in regions like the Canadian prairies where poor water quality intensifies water treatment issues. Buoyant cyanobacteria that resist sedimentation present a challenge as water treatment operators attempt to balance pre-treatment and toxic disinfection by-products. Here, we used microscopy to identify and describe the succession of cyanobacterial species in Buffalo Pound Lake, a key drinking water supply. We used indicator species analysis to identify temporal grouping structures throughout two sampling seasons from May to October 2018 and 2019. Our findings highlight two key cyanobacterial bloom phases – a mid-summer diazotrophic bloom of Dolichospermum spp. and an autumn Planktothrix agardhii bloom. Dolichospermum crassa and Woronchinia compacta served as indicators of the mid-summer and autumn bloom phases, respectively. Different cyanobacterial metabolites were associated with the distinct bloom phases in both years: toxic microcystins were associated with the mid-summer Dolichospermum bloom and some newly monitored cyanopeptides (anabaenopeptin A and B) with the autumn Planktothrix bloom. Despite forming a significant proportion of the autumn phytoplankton biomass (greater than 60%), the Planktothrix bloom had previously not been detected by sensor or laboratory-derived chlorophyll-a. Our results demonstrate the power of targeted taxonomic identification of key species as a tool for managers of bloom-prone systems. Moreover, we describe an autumn Planktothrix agardhii bloom that has the potential to disrupt water treatment due to its evasion of detection. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying this autumn bloom given the expectation that warmer temperatures and a longer ice-free season will become the norm.
Eddy covariance data reveal that a small freshwater reservoir emits a substantial amo...
Alexandria G Hounshell
Brenda M D'Acunha

Alexandria G Hounshell

and 5 more

December 13, 2022
Small freshwater reservoirs are ubiquitous and likely play an important role in global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets relative to their limited water surface area. However, constraining annual GHG fluxes in small freshwater reservoirs is challenging given their footprint area and spatially and temporally variable emissions. To quantify the GHG budget of a small (0.1 km2) reservoir, we deployed an eddy covariance system in a small reservoir located in southwestern Virginia, USA over two years to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes near-continuously. Fluxes were coupled with in situ sensors measuring multiple environmental parameters. Over both years, we found the reservoir to be a large source of CO2 (633-731 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1) and CH4 (1.02-1.29 g CH4-C m-2 yr-1) to the atmosphere, with substantial sub-daily, daily, weekly, and seasonal timescales of variability. For example, fluxes were substantially greater during the summer thermally-stratified season as compared to the winter. In addition, we observed significantly greater GHG fluxes during winter intermittent ice-on conditions as compared to continuous ice-on conditions, suggesting GHG emissions from lakes and reservoirs may increase with predicted decreases in winter ice-cover. Finally, we identified several key environmental variables that may be driving reservoir GHG fluxes at multiple timescales, including, surface water temperature and thermocline depth followed by fluorescent dissolved organic matter. Overall, our novel year-round eddy covariance data from a small reservoir indicate that these freshwater ecosystems likely contribute a substantial amount of CO2 and CH4 to global GHG budgets, relative to their surface area.
Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis And Structured Fut...
Patrick W Keys
Alexis E Meyer

Patrick W Keys

and 1 more

February 23, 2022
The future of Arctic social systems and natural environments is highly uncertain. Climate change will lead to unprecedented phenomena in the pan-Arctic region, such as regular shipping traffic through the Arctic Ocean, urban growth, military activity, expanding agricultural frontiers, and transformed Indigenous societies. While intergovernmental to local organizations have produced numerous synthesis-based visions of the future, a challenge in any scenario exercise is capturing the ‘possibility’ space of change. In this work, we employ a computational text analysis to generate unique thematic input for novel, story-based visions of the Arctic. Specifically, we develop a corpus of more than 2,000 articles in publicly accessible, English-language Arctic newspapers that discuss the future in the Arctic. We then perform a latent Dirichlet allocation, resulting in ten distinct topics and sets of associated keywords. From these topics and keywords, we design ten story-based scenarios employing the Mānoa mashup, science fiction prototyping, and other methods. Our results demonstrate that computational text analysis can feed directly into a creative futuring process, whereby the output stories can be traced clearly back to the original topics and keywords. We discuss our findings in the context of the broader field of Arctic scenarios and show that the results of this computational text analysis produce complementary stories to the existing scenario literature. We conclude that story-based scenarios can provide vital texture toward understanding the myriad possible Arctic futures.
Hourly and Daily PM2.5 Estimations using MERRA-2: A Machine Learning Approach
Alqamah Sayeed
Paul Lin

Alqamah Sayeed

and 5 more

April 22, 2022
Health and environmental hazards related to high pollutant concentrations have become a serious issue from the perspectives of public policy and human health. The objective of this research is to improve the estimation of grid-wise PM2.5, a criteria pollutant, by reducing systematic bias in estimating PM2.5 empirically from speciation provided by MERRA-2 using a ML approach. We present a unique application of machine learning (ML) for estimating hourly PM2.5 concentrations at grid points of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). The model was trained using various meteorological parameters and aerosol species simulated by MERRA-2 and ground measurements from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air quality system (AQS) stations. monitors. The ML approach significantly improved performance and reduced mean bias in the 0-10 µg m-3 range. We also used the Random Forest ML model for each EPA region using one year of collocated datasets. The resulting ML models for each EPA region were validated and the aggregate data set has a Pearson correlation of 0.88 (RMSE = 4.8 µg m-3) and 0.82 (RMSE = 5.8 µg m-3) for training and testing, respectively. The correlation (and RMSE) increased to 0.89 (4.0), 0.95 (1.6), 0.94 (1.1) for daily, monthly, and yearly average comparisons. The results from initial implementation of the ML model for global region are encouraging but require more research and development to overcome challenges associated with data gaps in many parts of the world.
The morphological phenotyping of hooked hairs in Phaseolus Vulgaris
ankita.roy
Addison Bralick

Ankita Roy

and 3 more

February 07, 2022
We quantify the shape of hooked hairs which is a newly observed phenotype of epidermal cell extensions [1] in the common bean genotype L88-57 (Phaseolus vulgaris). The hooked hairs emerge below-ground before the root hairs and have a distinct ‘hooking’ morphology. We generated a dataset capturing their full distribution under the microscope within 3-5 days of germination. We quantify their shape by a novel computational pipeline that can automatically phenotype morphology. Our phenotyping pipeline quantifies traits like length, curvature, perimeter, area, and ‘hooking.’ Our objective is to quantify their response to nutrient stress to determine the function of hooked hairs in common bean during early development. We used the pipeline for analyzing our dataset of hydroponically grown beans and observed statistically significant responses compared to the control for length, curvature, perimeter, and area to nitrogen (p<0.001**) and phosphorus (p<0.001**) stress treatments. The calculation of ‘hooking’ for our dataset is still ongoing. We are simultaneously developing a landmark-free method for the two-dimensional shape analysis of our dataset and believe that our phenotyping efforts will enable the high-throughput analysis of morphological root hair traits for any plant species.
On the Importance of Studying Data Gaps in Satellite Soil Moisture Registries
Lucía Cappelletti
Anna Sörensson

Lucía Cappelletti

and 4 more

June 21, 2022
Important progress has been made in recent years in characterizing surface soil moisture (SSM) at regional scales, through remote sensing estimates and the implementation of new in situ networks. Each of these sources of information has intrinsic features, such as the dynamic range of the SSM and the temporal frequency of acquisition. Another relevant factor is the period of data availability. Improving the knowledge of the limitations and biases of these features is crucial to increase the potential and the consistency of data sources validations. As a case of study we considered an agricultural area in the Argentinean Pampas, characterized by a sub-humid climate with a marked seasonal dynamic. It also holds a synchronized cropping rhythm and is subject to flooding and waterlogging that can last from days to months. The features mentioned above and considering that the region is almost devoid of irrigation, offer a natural laboratory that is distinguished by a wide dynamic range of SSM conditions. In this context, we analyze and expose different sources of SSM data gaps over long periods of time, using information from in situ stations and from the SMOS and SMAP satellite systems, during 2015-2019. We found SMAP data gaps resulting from the filtering of high SSM signals that are not spurious but typical for this flood-prone region. Reports from national institutions and comparison with other data sources allowed us to identify that high soil water content in the same period in which the data gaps occurred. In a different way, the SMOS register has a low-frequency range of data due to radio frequency interference over the study area. This data gap occurs during a long-anomalously wet period and it is relevant to take it into account when analyzing SMOS data for the full period. Our study shows the importance of using multiple sources of information and the relevance of examining the availability of data.
Relationships between blooms of Karenia brevis and hypoxia across the West Florida Sh...
Brendan Turley
Mandy Karnauskas

Brendan Turley

and 4 more

February 17, 2022
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf have become a nearly annual occurrence causing widespread ecological and economic harm. Effects range from minor respiratory irritation and localized fish kills to large-scale and long-term events causing massive mortalities to marine organisms. Reports of hypoxia on the shelf have been infrequent; however, there have been some indications that some HABs have been associated with localized hypoxia. We examined oceanographic data from 2004 to 2019 across the West Florida Shelf to determine the frequency of hypoxia and to assess its association with known HABs. Hypoxia was present in 5 of the 16 years examined and was always found shoreward of the 50-meter bathymetry line. There were 2 clusters of recurrent hypoxia: midshelf off the Big Bend coast and near the southwest Florida coast. We identified 3 hypoxic events that were characterized by multiple conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) casts and occurred concurrently with extreme HABs in 2005, 2014, and 2018. These HAB-hypoxia events occurred when K. brevis blooms initiated in early summer months and persisted into the fall likely driven by increased biological oxygen demand from decaying algal biomass and reduced water column ventilation due to stratification. There were also four years, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017, with low dissolved oxygen located near the shelf break that were likely associated with upwelling of deeper Gulf of Mexico water onto the shelf. We had difficulty in assessing the spatiotemporal extent of these events due to limited data availability and potentially unobserved hypoxia due to the inconsistent difference between the bottom of the CTD cast and the seafloor. While we cannot unequivocally explain the association between extreme HABs and hypoxia on the West Florida Shelf, there is sufficient evidence to suggest a causal linkage between them.
Sound-Side Inundation and Seaward Erosion of a Barrier Island during Hurricane Landfa...
Christopher Sherwood
Andy Ritchie

Christopher R. Sherwood

and 12 more

September 30, 2022
Barrier islands are especially vulnerable to hurricanes and other large storms, owing to their mobile composition, low elevations, and detachment from the mainland. Conceptual models of barrier-island evolution emphasize ocean-side processes that drive landward migration through overwash, inlet migration, and aeolian transport. In contrast, we found that the impact of Hurricane Dorian (2019) on North Core Banks, a 36-km barrier island on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, was primarily driven by inundation of the island from Pamlico Sound, as evidenced by storm-surge model results and observations of high-water marks and wrack lines. Analysis of photogrammetry products from aerial imagery collected before and after the storm indicate the loss of about 18% of the subaerial volume of the island through the formation of over 80 erosional washout channels extending from the marsh and washover platform, through gaps in the foredunes, to the shoreline. The washout channels were largely co-located with washover fans deposited by earlier events. Net seaward export of sediment resulted in the formation of deltaic bars offshore of the channels, which became part of the post-storm berm recovery by onshore bar migration and partial filling of the washouts with washover deposits within two months. The partially filled features have created new ponds and lowland habitats that will likely persist for years. We conclude that this event represents a setback in the overwash/rollover behavior required for barrier transgression.
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