Flattening the curve does not necessarily save lives on its own
To save lives, you must decrease the area under the Mortality Curve. Flattening the curve will inherently modify the rates of infection, mortality, and recovery. By flattening the curve with social distancing, the shape of the curve is different, the slopes of the tangents are different. However, the area under the curve does not necessarily change. Flattening the curve, can bring down the peak andwiden the base , maintaining the same AUC [graph 5].
Dr Robert Katz, founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, has been quoted on this topic: “If all we do is flatten the curve, you don’t prevent deaths, you just change the dates”3.
This is why. To save lives, you must decrease the area under the curve. Flattening the curve, does not necessarily achieve that on its own. It has the potential to save lives when combined with the following factors.
[Insert graph 5]