How does this translate to a strategy? 3 tiers
Putting all this together, there are 3 fundamental interventions governments can enact to decrease the mortality.
Strategy 1. Flatten the curve, bring down the peakSocial distancing measures will bring down the peak of the curve.
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Strategy 2. Raise the threshold of hospital capacity.This consists of building more ventilators, increasing the number of ICU beds, ICU personnel, emergency room, and medical ward capacity. Basically, the aim is to raise the threshold of hospital capacity so high, that the curve doesn’t cross it.
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Strategy 3. Invest in a cure or treatment.An earlier cure in combination with a flattened curve will maximize the number of lives saved.
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To be clear, such strategies are designed strictly to minimizing mortality across society during the pandemic. This article does not discuss strategies on returning to normalcy. Nevertheless, the ideal trigger to transition from one strategy to the other would be the development of a cure such as a vaccine or effective treatment.
However, if this cannot be found in time, our only option may be to gradually return to life on the downslope of the curve. Doing so, hoping that herd immunity may provide protection to the vulnerable. In such a scenario, mathematical modeling could to inform us on which part of the curve would optimize herd immunity and minimize a rebound.